内生不确定性与中国经济波动研究

中国经济目前存在较大的不确定性，既有产出和金融层面的，也有政策层面的。由于不确定性和经济波动联系密切，因此理解不确定性的成因、寻找不确定性的解决办法已成为决策者和理论界的重要问题。现有研究大多将不确定性视为外生，本项目拟采用前沿方法，研究中国宏观层面的内生不确定性和理论形成机制，以更好的理解不确定性和应对经济下行。本项目力求在方法和应用上做出贡献和创新：(1)采用更加可靠的数据和方法估计产出和金融不确定性；(2)采用冲击约束和异方差约束识别产出、金融和政策不确定性的内生性，分析内生性的状态依存特征；(3)构建多部门结构模型，研究不确定性陷阱对经济的影响，分析异常信号的传导机制和宏观效应，评估货币政策对不确定性的影响。本项目的研究将为减少不确定性的不利影响、应对中国经济下行提供重要的参考。

There is currently more considerable uncertainty in the Chinese economy, both at the output and financial levels and the policy level. Since uncertainty and economic fluctuations are closely linked, understanding the causes of uncertainty and finding solutions to uncertainty have become critical issues for policymakers and academic communities. Most of the existing research treats uncertainty as exogenous, and this project proposes to use a frontier approach to study endogenous uncertainty and theory formation mechanisms at the macro level in China in order to understand uncertainty better and cope with the economic downturn. This project seeks to be pioneering and innovative in methodology and application: (1) to estimate output and financial uncertainty using more reliable data and methods; (2) to identify the endogenous nature of the output, financial and policy uncertainty using shock restrictions and heteroskedasticity constraints and to analyze the state-dependent characteristics of endogeneity; and (3) to construct a multisectoral structural model to study the impact of uncertainty traps on the economy, analyze the transmission mechanisms and macro effects of abnormal signals, and assess the impact of monetary policy on uncertainty. The research of this project will provide an essential reference for reducing the adverse effects of uncertainty and coping with China's economic downturn.