基于消费者选择行为的在线零售商战略性缺货与承诺机制研究

在电子商务迅猛发展的背景下，在线零售商开展"双十一"等大型促销活动十分活跃，由此带来的物流爆仓、订单临时取消、产品缺货与退货等问题也日益引起了关注。在线零售商在促销期运营能力存在不足可能时如何通过战略性缺货策略以及承诺机制来增加盈利与消费者的满意度成为本项目的核心研究话题。本项目的研究内容包括：1、基于消费者选择理论，研究并测度在线零售商的产品需求转移机制；2、研究考虑运营能力约束与边际成本变化时，在线零售商的战略性缺货策略及其动态调整；3、在考虑消费者的跨期学习行为的前提下，研究在线零售商的最优运营决策及承诺机制设计。本项目战略性地研究在线零售商的缺货与承诺机制问题，与国际运营管理主流研究的最新趋势一致，有助于拓宽与充实该领域的研究。项目研究采用离散选择与理性预期均衡的分析框架，可以帮助在线零售商更好地理解消费者行为、优化管理决策优化管理决策,对推进我国电商行业的良性发展具有重要的启示。

With the development of e-commerce, online retailers' Double-Eleven Day and other large-scale promotional activities are very popular in recent years. The complains of delivery service, canceled orders, out of stock and the return of products that follow also increasingly attracted attention in recent days. Whether the online retailers can improve their profits and service level by virtue of rationing strategy or not has become hot topic deserved to be further investigated. In this project, we will firstly study the market demand shift and its measure based on consumer choice theory. We will then analyze the online retailer's strategic rationing decision and its dynamics with the considerations of capacity constraint and the variation of marginal cost. At the end, we will analyze further how to make the optimal operational decisions and design the commitment mechanism with the consideration of consumers' intertemporal learning beheavior. Our study of online retailers' strategic rationing and commiment is consistent with the international mainstream research trend of operations management and will explore and enrich the content of this research aera. Our study in this projet will be based on the framework of discrete choice model and rational expectation equilibrium. Our study will facilitate the online retailers' understanding of consumer behavior and help them to make decisions effectively. Our study results of this project will also provide managerial insights for the healthy development of e-commerce in China.