隐含能源视角下能源需求变化规律研究

随着中国经济进入新常态，能源需求的增长呈现出新的特征。厘清现阶段能源需求的变化规律，对能源与环境政策的制定具有重要意义。项目从隐含能源的视角出发，对能源需求变化的驱动因素展开研究；构建多区域能源投入产出模型，测算隐含能源流与隐含能源消费；将中间投入品隐含能源消耗纳入能源效率的测度框架，评价隐含能源效率的变化；对最终使用需求“地区-部门-时间”变化规律进行实证研究，探索最终使用结构演变规律。在此基础上，构建能源需求波动模型，识别短期经济冲击对产业结构与能源需求的影响与传导机制；建立中长期能源需求预测模型，研究能源需求总量与结构变化趋势；结合不同部门用能特性，分析未来能源转型的潜力。项目的研究丰富了能源消费特性变化机理的研究视角，完善了隐含能源效率测度的方法体系，扩展了能源需求变化研究的理论框架。

As China's economy enters a new normal, the growth of energy demand exhibits new characteristics. Cognizing the transformation law of energy demand at this stage is of great significance to the formulation of energy and environmental policies. This project starts from the perspective of embodied energy consumption and conducts research around the driving factors of energy demand variation. By constructing a multi-regional energy input-output database and energy input-output model, the embodied energy flow and the embodied energy consumption of the final use are measured; the implicit energy consumption of intermediate inputs is included in the energy efficiency measurement framework, and the embodied energy efficiency is studied. Analysis of the change of the final use, and explore the change of the final use structure. On this basis, the project decomposes the driving factors of energy demand variation, builds a model to depict the energy demand fluctuations, and identifies the impact of short-term shocks on final use demand and energy demand. Based on the variation of final use and implicit energy efficiency, the long-term energy demand and structural characteristics are studied. Combined with the energy use characteristics of different sectors, the potential of future energy transformation are evaluated. The research in this project has enriched the research perspective of the mechanism of transformation in energy consumption characteristics, improved the methodology of embodied energy efficiency measurement, and expanded the theoretical framework of energy demand prediction.