基于流域非点源污染随机模拟的BMPs自适应优化配置研究

批准号:
52009022
项目类别:
青年科学基金项目
资助金额:
24.0 万元
负责人:
代超
依托单位:
学科分类:
农业水利与农村水利
结题年份:
2023
批准年份:
2020
项目状态:
已结题
项目参与者:
代超
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中文摘要
非点源污染问题日益严重,利用数学模型识别流域尺度上的最佳管理措施(BMPs)的最优空间配置方案,使之有效控制非点源污染的研究成为了热门焦点。但是,目前广泛采用的流域非点源污染模拟-优化耦合模型为确定性模型,无法处理系统中客观存在的不确定性问题。本项目从构建流域非点源污染模型入手,结合广义似然不确定性估计(GLUE)和随机机会约束规划(SCCP)进行随机不确定性的识别和处理,构建了非点源污染状态对BMPs的随机响应关系,开发了流域非点源污染随机模拟与BMPs自适应优化配置技术。该技术不仅能定量化不确定性从流域非点源污染模型到优化模型的传导,也能增强非点源污染模拟-优化耦合理论在不确定性条件下的适用性,而且适应性耦合方法能缓解计算速度和代理误差之间的矛盾。本研究将以广东省韩江流域为研究对象,产出流域尺度的BMPs优化配置方案,并为我国非点源污染控制和管理提供理论指导。
英文摘要
Non-point source pollution problem has become increasingly serious. The application of mathematical models to identify the optimal placement of best management practices (BMPs) on a watershed scale to effectively control non-point source pollution has become a hot topic. However, the widely-used non-point source pollution simulation-optimization coupled model is deterministic and cannot address the uncertainties that exist in the system. This project starts with the construction of a non-point source pollution model, combines generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and stochastic chance constraint programming (SCCP) to identify and process stochastic uncertainties, constructs the random response relationship of non-point source pollution status to BMPs, and finally develops an adaptive optimal placement technique of BMPs based on stochastic simulation of watershed-scale non-point source pollution. This technique can not only quantify the transfer of uncertainties from the non-point source pollution simulation model to the optimization model, but also enhance the applicability of the non-point source pollution simulation-optimization coupling theory under uncertainty conditions. Moreover, the adaptive coupling approach can mitigate the conflicts between computational speed and proxy error. This project will use the Han River basin in Guangdong Province as a study case to solve the basin-scale BMPs optimal placement scheme, and provide theoretical guidance for non-point source pollution control and management in China.
期刊论文列表
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科研奖励列表
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专利列表
DOI:10.2166/wcc.2022.115
发表时间:2022
期刊:Journal of Water and Climate Change
影响因子:2.8
作者:Chao Dai;Xiaosheng Qin;Feifei Dong;Yanpeng Cai
通讯作者:Yanpeng Cai
DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100509
发表时间:2022
期刊:Weather and Climate Extremes
影响因子:8
作者:C. Dai;X.S. Qin;X.L. Zhang;B.J. Liu
通讯作者:B.J. Liu
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101624
发表时间:2023
期刊:Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
影响因子:--
作者:X.Z. Tan;Y. Li;X.X. Wu;C. Dai;X.L. Zhang;Y.P. Cai
通讯作者:Y.P. Cai
国内基金
海外基金
