PDO/NPGO 对西北太平洋台风频数年代际变率的影响及机理研究

本项目拟通过自回归模型和滤波分析等时空分析方法，结合历史台风最佳路径数据、气候指数、Hadley 中心SST 数据、SODA再分析资料以及GFDL 模式数值实验，研究太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)与北太平洋涡旋振荡(NPGO)对台风频数年代际变率的影响特征及其机理。本研究拟实施以下研究内容：1.通过时空分析，探清PDO/NPGO 与西北太平洋台风频数年代际变率之间的时间（如时滞关系）以及空间关联特征， 并揭示PDO与NPGO 在影响台风频数年代际变率上的相对重要性。 2.通过气候诊断分析揭示PDO/NPGO 影响台风频数变化的物理机制(如季节性足迹机制)。3. 通过气候数值模拟敏感性试验，验证PDO/NPGO 与西北太平洋台风频数年代际变率关系背后的物理机制。本项目将加深对SST-台风关系的理解，也为台风频数年代际预测提供科学和理论依据。

This project proposes to examine the associations between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)/the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the decadal variation of the occurrence of typhoons in the western North Pacific and the underlying mechanisms through spatial-temporal analysis methods (e.g., the autoregressive model and filter analysis),typhoon best track data, climate indices, the Met Office Hadley Center's SST data set, the SODA reanalysis data and the GFDL model. The tasks of this project are summarized as follows:.1. To unravel the temporal (e.g., time-lagged) and spatial relationships between PDO/NPGO and the decadal variation of the occurrence of typhoons, and to understand the relative roles of PDO and NPGO in modulating the decadal variation of the occurrence of typhoons..2. To discover the physical mechanisms underlying how PDO/NPGO affects the occurrence of typhoons (e.g., seasonal footprinting mechanisms)..3. To verify the physical mechanisms underpinning the association between PDO/NPGO and the decadal variation of the occurrence of typhoons through climate sensitivity experiments..This project is expected to advance the understanding of the SST-typhoon association, and to provide scientific and theoretical evidences for the decadal prediction of the occurrence of typhoons.