政治参与和20世纪下半叶的中国现代化转型：来自党员结构与社会平等化的县级证据

本项目基于从县志等资料中整理的县级历史面板数据，试图回答“中国在上个世纪后半叶如何通过重建国家能力、重建基层政治参与来推动国家现代化转型”这一问题。我们将主要围绕以党员数量和结构衡量的“基层政治参与”、以教育代际传递衡量的“社会阶层流动”以及以出生人口性别结构衡量的“性别平等”这几个维度，探讨以下几个实证问题：1）建国初期的党员政治参与结构如何受到抗日战争、土地改革等历史事件的影响？机制是什么？2）1949年以来，党员中普通民众参与的比例是否会影响整个社会的教育代际流动水平？机制是什么？3）党员中女性的比例是否会改变整个社会女性的生育性别结构以及她们的婚姻、就业等选择？机制又是什么？对于党员结构对社会平等化的影响，我们将主要从公共政策与社会观念这两个渠道进行检验。本项目是对中国革命与现代化转型关系的量化历史研究，将党员的政治参与纳入分析，也丰富了对我国“国家能力”形成机制和作用机制的理解。

Based on the county-level panel data from 1949-2000 compiled from the county chronicles and other materials, this project attempts to answer an important question: how did China promote the modernization transformation by rebuilding its state capacity and grassroots political participation in the second half of the 20th century? We will mainly focus on grassroots political participation measured by party membership structure, social mobility measured by inter-generational transmission of education, and gender equality measured by sex ratio of population at birth. We will discuss the following empirical questions: 1) how was the party members' political participation structure in the early years in 1950s shaped by the Anti-Japanese War and the Land Reform? What are the mechanisms of influence? 2) Did the participation of ordinary people in party affect the intergenerational mobility of education in the whole society? What is the mechanism? 3) Did the proportion of female in party members change the reproductive gender structure of women in the whole society, as well as their marriage, employment and other choices? What is the mechanism? As for the influence of party member structure on social equality, we will mainly test two channels: the influence on public policy and the change of social concept. This project is a quantitative historical study of the relationship between Chinese revolution and modernization transformation. Meanwhile, it also enriches the understanding of the formation and influence of state capacity in China.