基于SWMM的城市雨洪径流危害预警研究

在重点剖析城市洪涝灾害和雨洪径流污染的严重危害的基础上，本项目融合水文学、水力学、信息科学等领域中的理论与技术，拟基于美国环保署的暴雨洪水管理模型（SWMM）研究城市雨洪危害预警。首先，在实测降水、径流和径流污染等资料收集整理的基础上，采用支持向量机的方法进行模型参数率定和验证，以得到适合研究区域雨洪模拟的SWMM。其次，结合城市洪涝灾害评估和雨洪径流水质评价结果，基于SWMM生成研究区洪涝灾害和雨洪径流水质历史时空分布；最后，将预报降水量作为SWMM降水输入，进行计算机模拟，生成洪涝灾害和雨洪径流水质时空分布，进行预警研究。本项目旨在通过雨洪危害预警研究为领导减灾决策、市民防灾等提供科学的依据；为城市雨洪径流污染控制提供理论依据。

Basing on the analyzing of city flood disaster and rainfall-runoff pollution, and fusing the theories and technologies in fields of hydrology, hydraulics, information,this project focuses on studying the hazard warning of city rainfall-runoff based on the Storm Water Management Model(SWMM). First, based on the collection of materials such as measured rainfall, runoff, and runoff pollution, this project uses the support vector machine method in realizing parameter calibration and validation of SWMM. The target of this research is to get the SWMM model that is suitable for the research area. Second, integrating the evaluation results of city flood disaster and the quality evaluation results of rainfall-runoff, this project explore the historical spatial and temporal distribution of flood disaster and rainfall-runoff in the research area. Finally, taking the forecast precipitation as input of the SWMM, to produce the spatial and temporal distribution graph of flood disaster and the quality of rainfall-runoff, this project do some forewarning researches. This project aims at providing scientific basis for government leaders and citizens to make decisions in disaster. Besides, this project can provide theoretical foundation for controling pollutions of city rainfall-runoff.