中国医院药品费用多年间高速增长，抑制医院药品费用的过快上涨是当前医改重点关注的问题，也是药事管理学与卫生经济学领域研究的热点课题。本研究通过引入非随机指数理论模型，对药品费用增长的构成进行分析，主要内容包括：1）采用时间序列分析方法和非随机指数理论模型分析法研究医院药品费用增长的现状，对费用增长部分进行分解，分析费用增长的趋势、规律与构成结构；2）构建类别分析模型和个体影响指数，识别影响药品费用增长的主要药品类别和重点药品品种，对药品价格变化、药品总使用量上升、新药上市冲击、仿制药替代、抗感染药物和辅助用药使用等重要因素展开针对性研究；3）比较药品费用增长构成的地区间和国内外差异，对费用增长结构合理性进行评价，提出合理化规制策略。研究改进了药品费用增长构成的分析方法，丰富和深化了药品费用研究体系，具有理论意义。研究结果将有助于制定合理的费用规制策略，具有实际应用价值。

The cost of pharmaceuticals has increased rapidly in China in recent years. The inhibition of excessive drug costs is an important topic of health care system reform; it is also a hot topic of Pharmacy Administration and Health Economics research. ..A Non-Stochastic Index-Theoretical model was proposed and used to analyze the components of increased drug expenditure, and main research points are listed as follows..1) To decompose components of increased drug expenditure, the increase mechanism will be researched..2) We will develop a unit impact model and a category impact model to explore key products and categories that impact the increased expenditure..3) Based on time series data, we will assess the reginal specialty and international differences, and then research the trends and mechanism of various components of increased drug expenditure. .This project will assess the impact of many key factor on drug expenditure grows, such as drug pricing, utilization, new drug appear, generic substitution, antibiotic use, adjuvant drug use etc. .In summary, this project not only enrich and deepen the theoretical system of pharmaceutical expenditure research, but also advance the strategy of expenditure regulation.