在中国从农业文明到工业文明的历史大转型中，全球化到底扮演了什么样的角色？本研究以近现代中国两次全球化为例，探讨贸易开放的历史作用。具体来说，本研究考察租界贸易时代(1842-1943)和改革开放时代(1978-)两次大规模开放的历史效应。我们认为贸易开放打破了以往经济低水平均衡，使得经济转向外部世界主导的高水平均衡。我们首先构建一个包含贸易的多重均衡模型，展示贸易在均衡跃迁中的作用；然后我们利用近代中国和现代中国的数据论证贸易在实现均衡跃迁中的具体机制：贸易开放冲击了以往经济的完备性、加剧了晚清为了镇压“太平天国”实施的军事分权和改革开放时代的财政分权、作用于近现代中国的贸易政策。本研究一方面打破学科的隔膜，总结近代和现代的历史经验，以资当下；另一方面，从中国近代化和现代化的角度理解贸易开放的历史效应，这种历史经验也应该成为中国和发展中国家共同的历史财富。

We analyze historical effect of Globalization during modern China. Firstly, we build a theoretical multi-equilibria model with trade, in which trade implies participating in international market, and evolving towards an out-world-leading high-level equilibrium. Secondly, we show mechanism of trade effect. 1) Trade has negative effect on old self-cycle economy. Surely, trade sectors, which is involved in the outworld-leading equilibrium, cannot survive in the old economy. Sectors in the old economy are embedded into a self-cycle equilibrium firmly and trade has a shock on the old equilibrium. 2) Trade promotes decentralization in Modern China. Decentralization in political power can propel competition across local governments, which has effect on long-run growth. 3) Trade can affects long-run growth through trade polity after the formation of national state in Modern China. China can execute different trade policy, following its Comparative Advantage.