政策性担保贷款自我履约的微观机理与实现路径

本题认为“由产业链上核心企业作为反担保人的政策性担保贷款”具有自我履约特征，是政策性担保机构以市场化方式化解违约风险，实现可持续发展的有效模式。.违约率高是政策性担保贷款的现实问题。本题总结了政策性担保发挥“抵押品替代”功能的前提是“甄别有效、监督有效”。因此，本题从贷前信息甄别、贷后监督两个维度剖析违约率高的理论根源，分析并检验政农关系、反担保措施、监督成本、产业关联度等风险点对违约的作用机制、影响程度。.“产业链上核心企业作为反担保人的政策性担保贷款”由于具备“互联的关系型合约”特征，可以实现自我履约。本题基于“声誉”效应，解释了该类契约中，由于诱导性捆绑收益和可置信多重惩罚，实现了交易各方的“互惠、互利”，弥补了信息不对称、有效降低了监督成本。制度环境、核心企业对产业链的掌控度、专用性资产投资等是实现自我履约的基本路径。.随着上述理论机理的揭示和提炼，相应政策建议的合理性也将提升。

This project holds that "policy-based guarantee loans which are with core enterprises as counter-guarantors in the industrial chain " has the characteristics of self-performance. It is the endogenous driving force for policy-based guarantee institutions’ sustainable development , because it can reduce the default risks in a market-oriented way ..High default rate is a practical problem of policy-based guaranteed loans. This project summarizes that the premises for policy-based guarantee to play the function of "collateral substitution" are "effective screening and effective supervision". Therefore, the project analyzes the theoretical root of high default rate from two dimensions of pre-loan information screening and post-loan supervision, and tests the action mechanism and influence degree of risk points on default ,such as political and agricultural relations, anti-guarantee measures, supervision cost and industrial correlation degree. ."Policy-based guaranteed loans for core enterprises in the industrial chain as counter-guarantors" can realize self-performance due to the characteristics of "interconnected relational contracts". Based on the "reputation" effect, this research explains that because of the induced binding benefits and multiple credible punishments, the "reciprocity and mutual benefit" of all parties in the transaction is realized, so as to make up for the information asymmetry and reduce the cost of supervision effectively. Institutional environment, core enterprises' control of the industrial chain, and specific asset investment are the basic ways to achieve self-fulfillment..As the above theoretical mechanism is revealed and refined, the rationality of corresponding policy Suggestions will also be improved.