基于生态循环视角的种养结合模式:绩效测度、协同机制及政策扶持

构建和完善种养结合的农业废弃物循环利用政策，是实施乡村振兴、生态文明建设和农业绿色发展的需要。而科学测度种养结合循环农业绩效和演化机制，则是完善农业废弃物资源化利用政策和提高政策运行效率的关键。本项目以江西为例，从生态循环视角，实地调研获取研究所需的种植户、养殖户、中介服务组织和政府管理等相关数据，构建种养结合生态循环农业协同指数，找出制约种养结合生态循环农业系统发展的关键环节和关键因素；其次，利用IAHP方法测度三种不同生态循环模式效益，DEA-Tobit分析法分别测度每一种模式四个主体内不同决策单元的绩效；再次，利用博弈论来探讨不同主体行为在合作过程中的演化过程和动力机制；再次，利用系统动力学动态模拟不同政策变量的变化对三种不同种养结合生态循环模式各利益主体影响方向和影响强度；最后，在定量评价不同支持政策和发展模式的优劣势基础上，提出改进种养结合生态循环农业的优化路径和政策建议。

The construction and improvement of the agricultural waste recycling policy of combination of farming and animal husbandry is the requirement to implement rural revitalization of ecological civilization construction and agricultural green development. And scientific measurement of performance and evolution mechanism of circular agriculture combined with farming and animal husbandry is the key to improving the agricultural waste resource utilization policy and increasing the efficiency of policy operation..In view of ecological cycle, this project taking Jiangxi Province as an example to conduct field research to obtain the data of growers, farmers, intermediary service organizations and government required by the research. Simultaneously, the synergy index of circular agriculture combined with farming and animal husbandry are built to find out the key links and key factors to constrain the development of ecological recycling agricultural systems. After this, the analytic hierarchy process is used to measure three different ecological cycle patterns, and DEA-T four-stage analysis are introduced to the measurement of the performance of different decision-making units in each of the four models of each model. Furthermore, the evolution processes and dynamic mechanism of different subject behaviors in the cooperation process are explored by game theory. Additionally, the paper uses system dynamics to simulate the changes of different policy variables, the influence direction and impact intensity of various stakeholders in the three different species-raising ecological cycle models. Finally, based on the evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of different support policies and development models, the author proposes an optimized path and policy recommendations for improving the combination of farming and animal husbandry ecological recycling agriculture.