西天山是“丝绸之路经济带”核心区域，针对该区域雪崩与诱发因子间因果关系表征不足，风险评估模型普适性差、大范围推广难等问题，本项目拟基于地面实际观测、地形地貌、遥感等多源数据，系统量化雪崩发生前后积雪特性变化引起的散射特性及光谱特性差异，深入挖掘光学及SAR影像资料获取积雪特征信息的能力；同时解析雪崩诱发因子的构成和响应范围，量化雪崩与诱发因子之间的因果概率关系；在此基础上，基于隐马尔科夫链方法构建雪崩风险评估模型。项目拟在西天山重点区域进行模型应用，结合监测数据评估该区域的雪崩风险分布。本项目将在一定程度上解决冬季评估山区雪崩风险的困难，为雪崩防灾救灾减灾工作提供科学依据，服务于“丝绸之路经济带”建设宏伟目标。

Western Tianshan Mountain is the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Certain problems occurred in this region such as the inadequate characterization of causality between avalanche and inducing factors, poor universality of risk assessment model with difficulties in wide-scale promotion. In face of these problems, the project applies multi-source data from ground observation, topography, remote sensing etc. It systematically quantifies the differences of scatter and spectral characteristics caused by changes in snow cover characteristics before and after avalanches, and dig the ability of optical and SAR image to obtain snow feature information. On this foundation, an avalanche risk assessment model is constructed according to Hidden Markov Model. This study utilizes model application in the key areas of the Western Tianshan Mountains to obtain the risk assessment of avalanche distribution in the region combined with monitoring data. To a certain extent, it aims at solving the difficulty in evaluating winter avalanche risk in mountainous area, which provide scientific foundation for avalanche prevention, relief and mitigation work so as to serve the grand goal in constructing the Silk Road Economic Belt.