冰区船舶及海洋平台可靠性分析及风险评估机理研究

寒带冰区海洋装备的安全运行是我国发展“一带一路”战略和建设“冰上丝绸之路”核心能力的重要保障。与开敞水域装备相比，冰区海洋装备的运行风险更大，事故一旦发生，常造成极大损失。为此亟需准确地评估冰区结构物安全性能，建立对应的风险评估方法。以往研究通常采用确定性方法计算冰与结构物的碰撞等强相互作用，对于结构物可靠性和失效机理研究不足，可量化的风险评估方法尚很匮乏。本项目针对极地航行船舶、黑龙江流域内河船和冰区海洋平台与冰的相互作用问题，分别采用离散元方法和有限元方法研究忽略和计入结构响应的冰区结构物冰载荷特征，提出考虑随机冰载和累积损伤的结构承载能力研究方法，结合模型试验验证分析，构建结构可靠性分析方法，揭示结构塑性损伤的失效机理。在此基础上开展风险评估关键技术研究，基于雪龙号科考船等冰区装备的实测数据，提出冰情数据管理下的冰区结构物风险量化方法，旨在为寒区装备安全运行提供理论基础和研究手段。

The safe operation of Marine equipment in the ice zone is an important guarantee for China to develop the "one belt and one road" strategy and build the "ice silk road" core capacity. Compared with the equipment in open water area, the operation risk of the marine equipment in ice area is greater. Once an accident occurs, it usually causes great losses. Therefore, it is urgent to evaluate the safety performance of structures in the ice zone accurately and establish corresponding risk assessment methods. Previous studies usually used deterministic methods to calculate the strong interaction between ice and structures, such as collision. However, the research on reliability and failure mechanism of structure is in sufficient, and the quantifiable risk assessment methods is still lacking. In this project, for the interaction between polar navigation ships, inland river ships in Heilongjiang Basin and ice platform, discrete element method and finite element method are used respectively to study the ice load characteristics of ice structures which are ignored and included in the structural response. A research method of structural bearing capacity considering random ice load and cumulative damage is proposed. Combined with model test verification and analysis, thefailure mechanism of structural plastic damage is revealed by constructing structure reliability analysis. On this basis, the key technology of risk assessment is studied. Based on the measured data of “Xuelong” and other ice equipment, the risk quantification method of ice structure under ice condition data management is proposed. The purpose is to provide theoretical basis and research means for the safe operation of equipment in cold regions.