绿色发展是我国社会经济长期、均衡发展的关键环节，农业生态补贴是激励农业绿色发展的重要政策手段之一。我国现有农业生态补贴耗资巨大，但是，其激励农业绿色发展的效果仍存在进一步提升的空间。本课题以“农业绿色发展五大行动”之一的“果菜茶有机肥替代化肥行动”为样本，围绕“农业绿色发展”目标，考察农业生态补贴政策的效果、机制和标准。首先，运用准自然实验的因果推断模型，对现阶段农业生态补贴的化肥施用量减少、农产品品质提升和耕地质量提升的效果进行评价；第二，运用结构方程模型，量化农户采用环境友好型生产技术的心理决策因素，实证检验农业生态补贴激励农户环境友好型生产的路径和机制；第三，依据环境友好型农户的直接成本与机会成本，测算政府和农户激励相容的农业生态补贴标准；最后，提出农业生态补贴有效激励农业绿色发展的制度优化方案。研究结论为现有农业支持政策提供参考，更为未来农业生态补贴制度优化和完善提供支撑。

Green development is a key step to achieve the long-term and balanced development of the economy and society in our country. The agricultural ecological subsidy is one of the main policies to stimulate the green development of the agriculture. The current agricultural ecological subsidy in our country costs a lot. However, its effect to stimulate the green development of agriculture needs to be improved. The topic of this thesis takes the “replacement of traditional non-organic fertilizers with organic fertilizers during the production of fruit, vegetables, and tea” which is one of “five measures for green development of the agriculture” as a sample. The thesis aims to analyze the incentive mechanism and effect of agricultural ecological subsidy policy following the goals of “green development of agriculture”. Firstly, the author evaluates the effect concerning the decline of consumption of chemical fertilizers related to the agricultural ecological subsidy, the quality improvement of agricultural products and the arable land by applying the causal inference model for quasi-natural experiments; Secondly, the structural equation model is used to quantize farmers’ psychological decision factor to adopt the environmental-friendly production technology. The author aims to check the way and mechanism that the agricultural ecological subsidy stimulates farmers’ environmental-friendly production. Thirdly, the author calculates the agricultural ecological subsidy standard of the integration between the government and farmers’ incentive following the direct cost and the opportunity cost of farmers who adopt the environmental-friendly production; Finally, the author proposes the system optimization scheme to stimulate the effective green development of the agriculture through the agricultural ecological subsidy. The research result can not only provide a reference for current agricultural support policy, but also provide support for future optimization and improvement of the agricultural ecological subsidy system.