基于水波动力学的城市交通多突发事件耦合效应研究

随着我国城市化进程的加快，城市多突发事件耦合发生越来越频繁，多突发事件下的交通应急处置，成为城市交通研究的热点和难点。本项目创新性地将水波动力学原理应用到城市多突发事件对交通影响耦合效应的研究中，从分析多突发事件耦合的交通特性入手，研究突发事件与交通系统的相互作用，界定突发事件对交通影响程度；利用水波波动方程及修正的交通波模型，建立交通影响系数模型；运用水波线性叠加原理，确定多突发事件耦合下某一点的交通影响程度，通过数学积分，实现点到面的交通影响的整合，构建多突发事件耦合的交通影响耦合模型；运用ARCGIS和VISSIM软件进行仿真实验验证模型的可行性和精确性；借助层次分析法的理论，建立交通应急紧急程度与多突发事件耦合对交通的影响程度、事件本身的严重程度、交通应急能力三个因素的关系模型，确定多突发事件耦合的交通应急等级。研究成果可以为交通管理部门及时有效处置多突发事件耦合提供决策依据。

With the rapid development of urbanization, coupling of multiple emergencies occurred frequently. Traffic emergency disposal of coupling of multiple accidents has become one of the hotspots and difficulties of the urban traffic research. In this project, the water wave dynamics is creatively used to analyze coupling effect of traffic impact of urban emergency. Starting by analyzing traffic characteristic of coupling of emergency, the interaction between accident and traffic system is analyzed and traffic impact degree is defined firstly. Then model of traffic impact factor of single emergency is established using water wave equation and modified traffic wave model. Using linear superposition principle of water wave, traffic impact degree at any point under coupling of emergency is determined. Though numerical integration, traffic impact is integrated from point to area and coupling model of traffic impact is built. The feasibility and accuracy of above model is tested by simulation experiment with ARCGIS and VISSIM software. Finally, the relationship between urgent degree of traffic emergency and traffic impact degree, severity of accident and emergency capability is established using analysis hierarchy process which can determine grade of traffic emergency. The results can provide decision-making basis for deal with coupling of multiple accident for traffic administrative department.