高山的冰雪冻土带是维系整个内陆河流域绿洲经济系统和生态系统持续运转的主要水源和水量中枢，而冰川融水占疏勒河出山径流的30%以上，准确评估冰川储量变化及其对水资源的影响对于疏勒河流域的水资源管理和可持续发展具有重要意义。本项目拟利用多源（以SPOT 5/6/7和资源3号为主）立体像对，获取疏勒河山区多期高精度的数字高程模型。利用SRTM V4，以及1:100000数字高程模型，激光测高等数据，获取冰川储量变化。利用多期冰川储量变化结果、同位素和水化学分割获得的疏勒河干流冰川融水的贡献、GRACE获得的水储量变化结果对分布式水文模型中的冰川水文过程进行进一步改进，模拟疏勒河山区冰川及冰川径流对过去几十年的气候变化的响应过程，进而揭示不同规模冰川储量变化规律及其对冰川融水径流的影响。用降尺度的气候模型的集合预估结果驱动，预估疏勒河山区在未来不同气候情景下融水径流变化及对出山径流的影响。

Alpine areas with glacier and permafrost is the main sources and water tower for the oasis economic system and the ecological system of the entire inland river basin. The meltwater accounts for more than 30% of the runoff at the outlet of upper reach of Shule River, accurate assessment the glacier ice volume change and its impact on water resources is of great significance to water resources management and sustainable development of Shule River basin. The project intends to take advantage of multi-source (mainly of SPOT 6/7 and ZY-3) stereo pairs to get high-precision digital elevation model. Then the ice volume changes were calculated by comparing the new DEMs with that from SRTM V4, and 1: 100,000 DEM, laser altimeter data. The results of ice volume changes, meltwater contribution separated from isotopes and water chemistry, water storage changes from GRACE data　were used to improve the simulation of glacier processes in distributed hydrological model, and glacier area and ice volume changes were considered. The changes of glacier and the meltwater in the past few decades response to climate change were simulated, and the different variations and impacts on meltwater of glaciers in different size were revealed.The potential changes of meltwater and its impact on river runoff were projected by the improved distributed hydrological model forced by the downscaled ensemble climate scenarios from CMIP5 GCMs.