中国经济波动的分部门贸易传导机制是国际贸易领域持续关注的重要科学问题。本项目拟基于全球价值链视角下中国“两头倚重”的贸易结构特征，首先通过外部需求冲击对中国经济波动影响的机理研究以及基于实证分析的外部需求冲击对中国经济波动影响效应研究，构建符合中国实际的开放经济DSGE模型；然后基于深度学习框架，构建深度DSGE模型，并提出相应的模型验证、参数确定方法；最后采用深度DSGE模型，从定量的角度就外部需求冲击对中国经济波动的影响进行合理的模拟，进而预测实施不同政策所带来的外部需求冲击对中国经济波动的影响趋势，并通过比较权衡，最终选取最为适宜的政策来应对经济形势的变化，从而增强决策的科学性。本项目能够为研究外部需求冲击对经济波动的影响提供理论依据，对加快中国经济融入经济全球化的步伐，增强中国经济抵御外部需求冲击的能力，有着重要的作用。

Sector trade transmission mechanism of China's economic fluctuation is among the most important issues that receive increasing concerns in international trade. This project is based on the characteristics of China's "two-pronged" trade structure from the perspective of global value chain. Firstly, through the impact mechanism of external demand shocks on China's economic fluctuation and the effect of external demand shocks on China's economic fluctuation based on empirical analysis, an open economy DSGE model that agrees well with China' economy will be established. Then, using the deep leaning framework, a deep DSGE model will be constructed and corresponding model validation and parameter evaluation methods will be proposed. Finally, this project uses the open economy DSGE model to simulate the impact of trade shock on China's economic fluctuation from a quantitative perspective, and then predict the impact of the external demand shocks imposed by different policies on China’s economic fluctuation, and by comparing the trade-offs, selecting the most appropriate policies to respond to changes in the economic situation and enhance the scientific nature of decision-making. This study can provide theoretical basis for studying the impact of external demand shock on economic fluctuation, and helps in accelerating the pace of China's economic integration into the economic globalization and enhancing the ability of China's economy to withstand the impact of external demand.