台风数目和尺度的气候影响因子：旋转辐射对流平衡模拟

台风是我国最主要的自然灾害之一。随着全球变暖，台风会如何变化是当前气候变化研究的一个重要科学问题。虽然目前大部分研究认为台风强度和降水强度会随着全球变暖显著增加，但对台风数量和个头尺寸如何随全球变暖而变化的研究尚且较为缺乏且有很大的争议。申请人计划采用相对理想化和容易理解的旋转辐射对流平衡模型，借助世界领先的无锡“太湖之光” 超级计算机，开展一系列大区域（20000 km×20000 km）、高分辨率（5公里）的敏感性试验，研究海温、地转率、降水效率等对台风数目及个头尺寸的影响和机理。这些研究将加深我们对台风未来变化的理解和科学认识，为更好地应对气候变化提供重要的科学支撑。

Typhoon (tropical cyclone, TC) is one of the most destructive natural hazards in China. How TC characteristics are going to change with global warming is an important and unsettled scientific question in climate change research. TC intensity and its rainfall intensity are projected to enhance with global warming. However, studies focused on TC numbers and sizes and how they will change with the global warming are rather limited and unsettled. Considering its relative simple and easy-to-understand features, the applicant plans to conduct a series of high resolution (5 km) large-domain (20000 km x 20000 km) rotating radiative convective equilibrium simulations using the top supercomputer “Taihu-Light”in Wuxi. Based on these simulations, the impact and mechanisms of sea surface temperature (SST), rotation rate (f), and precipitation efficiency on TC number and size will be investigated and explored. The study will promote our scientific understanding regarding future changes of TC properties with global warming and provide an important ground for better coping with climate change.