大规模新能源集中并网输电系统的AVC时空协调概率决策理论

大规模新能源的集中接入给电力系统的自动电压控制（AVC）带来了深刻影响，传统以确定性静态无功优化为基础的AVC面临着严峻挑战。如何应对新能源的随机性、间歇性和低可控性，实现各类调压设备的时空协调控制，成为保障电力系统安全经济运行的关键问题。与现有研究大多着眼解决新能源分散接入配电网的电压无功问题不同，本项目提出对大规模新能源集中接入输电系统AVC的新理论和新方法进行研究。项目拟以源荷功率时空分布的随机波动规律为出发点，以输电网AVC分级分区协调的新机制为主线，重点研究输电网的无功分区概率优化方法、基于随机动态无功优化的三级电压控制概率决策方法，以及考虑源荷功率随机性的协调二级电压控制概率决策方法。本项目以研究和构建输电网AVC时空协调概率决策的基础理论和系统方法为目标，探索从根本上解决大规模新能源集中接入输电系统电压无功问题的新途径，有望在输电系统AVC的优化决策理论和方法上取得重大突破。

The large-scale renewable energy centralized integration affects the performance of Automatic Voltage Control (AVC) in power system, and presents challenges in traditional AVC which is formulated as a deterministic static optimal reactive power dispatch. To guarantee the security and economic, it is a key issue in dealing with the stochastic, intermittent behavior and low controllability of renewable energy, and achieving the spatio-temporal coordination of different kinds of control devices. This project proposes a novel theory and method of transmission AVC system with large-scale renewable energy integration, which differs from the existing research focused on the voltage control in distribution network with renewable energy decentralized integration. Based on the stochastic behavior of the spatio-temporal distribution of source-load, and a novel hierarchical partitioning coordination mechanism of transmission AVC system, this project focus on probability optimization of transmission network partitioning, probabilistic decision method of tertiary voltage control based on stochastic dynamic optimal reactive power dispatch, probabilistic decision method of coordinated secondary voltage control based on stochastic static optimal reactive power dispatch. The project studies and establishes a basic theory and system method of spatio-temporal coordination probabilistic decision theory on transmission AVC system, which explores a novel method of fundamentally solution in transmission voltage control with large-scale renewable energy centralized integration. It is expected to give a breakthrough on optimization decision theory of transmission AVC system.