太平洋中低纬间次表层潜沉水输运在气候变化下对赤道太平洋海温分布及ENSO事件的影响研究

在过去的几十年里，可能源于对温室气体浓度增加的响应，地球表面特别是热带海区平均温度不断增加。然而，由于东、西热带太平洋不一样的层结特性，特别是东、西热带太平洋在中低纬间次表层潜沉水输运过程中的差异，使得东、西热带太平洋上层海洋的平均温度变化对于全球增暖趋势的响应并不一致，在赤道太平洋次表层海温场上表现为两种独立的东西偶极子式海温年代际变化模态，且伴随有频繁的中部、暖池或Modoki型ENSO事件的产生。. 那么，在温室气体增加引起的气候变化背景下，太平洋中低纬间次表层潜沉水输送将如何变化，这种改变与热带太平洋次表层的两种年代际海温变化模态之间有什么样的联系，能引起热带太平洋纬向温度梯度怎样的变化，对于气候变化背景下ENSO事件的强度、位置和频率等特征有怎样的调节作用？这一系列科学问题的解决将有助于理解太平洋中低纬间次表层潜沉水沿特殊通道输运在气候变化背景下ENSO事件演变中的作用。

In response to the increasing atmospheric green house gases concentration, the earth surface temperature keep rising, especially in the tropical area. However, due to the different stratification and tropical-subtropical water exchange in the eastern and western tropical Pacific, the mean temperature in the upper ocean of the eastern and western tropical Pacific appear distinct responses to the global warming, which then modify the zonal temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific with two absolutely decadal temperature modes on the subsurface ocean. Accompany with these two dipole modes, more and more central-ENSO, warm-pool-ENSO and ENSO modoki events appear in the tropical Pacific Ocean. .As a result, a series of scientific questions are proposed. With the global changing, how will the tropical-subtropical subsurface water exchange be modulated in the Pacific? What change will occur in the mean temperature and zonal temperature gradient in the eastern and western tropical Pacific? How can this change regulate the intensity and frequency of the ENSO events? As a main heating source, how can this change affect the tropical-excited atmospheric circulation anomalies? Solution to these questions will be helpful in understanding the role of the Pacific tropical-subtropical subsurface water exchange in the ENSO cycle and improving the predictable in the ENSO events.