中小河流洪水预报是当前国际水文科学中亟待研究的重大科学问题之一。我国西南山区中小河流分布广、洪水频发、降水及下垫面空间异致性强、水文资料相对欠缺，因此目前预报精度较低，预报难度大。特别是近年来西南山区中小河流上库塘等小型水利工程建设的影响，增加了中小河流洪水预报的复杂性。有效的洪水预报对降低西南山区中小河流洪水灾害具有重要作用。本项目以揭示库塘群复杂影响下西南山区中小河流洪水形成机理，研发精细化洪水预报模型和实时校正方法，提高中小河流洪水预报精度为研究目标。主要研究内容包括：（1）西南山区中小河流致灾洪水形成机理研究；（2）西南山区中小河流精细化洪水预报模型研究；（3）西南山区库塘群运行对中小河流洪水的影响机制研究；（4）库塘群复杂影响下西南山区中小河流洪水预报及实时校正研究。本项目研究将为中小河流洪水的有效精准预报，降低中小河流洪水灾害风险和损失，提供一定的科学技术支撑。

Flood forecasting in small - medium rivers has been one of the most important scientific issues. Small-medium rivers in southwestern mountain area of China have the characteristics of strong spatial heterogeneity of precipitation and underlying surface, lack of hydrological data, so the flood forecasting in small - medium rivers is quite difficult. Especially in recent years, the impact of reservoirs and other hydropower projects has increased the complexity of flood forecasting in small - medium rivers. Effective flood forecasting is important for disasters reduction. The main objective is to study flood forecasting of small- medium rivers on the effects of small reservoirs in southwestern mountain areas of China, including the following main contents: (1)The flood mechanism of small- medium rivers in southwestern mountain areas; (2)Developing a flood forecasting model on a small-scale and high-resolution; (3)Dynamics effect of reservoir storage and discharge on floods of small- medium rivers; (4) Flood forecasting and real-time updating of small- medium rivers considering the complex effects of reservoirs. The research results will provide scientific and technological support for the effective and accurate flood forecasting and the reduction of flood disasters of small - medium rivers.