城市基础设施可持续性开发决策机制研究：基于“本体-推理”视角

城市基础设施项目可持续性开发决策，其本质科学问题是不确定性环境下多专业决策者依据异质性决策基准评选可持续性决策方案的复杂多属性大群体决策问题。据此，本项目将以决策“本体-推理”为视角，按照“可视化信息表达、集成化推理优化、自动化支持系统”的研究思路，系统地设计出面向城市基础设施可持续性开发的决策机制。首先，通过探索城市基础设施可持续性开发决策基本原理及影响机理，设计决策机制框架。其次，从环境、社会、经济和管理四个可持续性维度，识别决策指标体系和基准体系，构建可视化决策本体模型。再次，基于决策知识本体表达，设计信息输入、转化集成和优化输出的决策推理机制，构建集成化决策推理方法和优化模型。最后，基于人工智能系统搭接本体模型和推理优化模型，设计并验证自动化决策支持系统。本项目研究既推进可持续性评价理论和不确定性复杂多属性大群体决策理论的发展，又为我国城市基础设施可持续性开发决策实践提供实操准则。

The development of sustainable urban infrastructures is a multidisciplinary decision-making problem. Its essence of science lies in the problem of complex and multi-attribute large group decision-making under uncertainty, in which multidisciplinary decision makers evaluate and select sustainable decision alternatives based on their heterogeneous decision criteria. To this end, this research project aims to systematically formalize a comprehensive decision-making mechanism for sustainable developments of urban infrastructures through the lens of decision-making “Ontology-Reasoning” and following the framework of “visualized information representation, integrated reasoning optimization, and automated support system”. To begin with, a systematical decision-making mechanism framework will be designed based on the exploration of decision-making rationales and their interrelated influential mechanisms in the context of sustainable developments of urban infrastructures. Furthermore, two decision-making indicator and criteria systems will be identified from environmental, social, economic, and managerial sustainability dimensions. Building upon this, a visualizable decision-making ontology model will be developed, which will be validated as formal, comprehensive, and reusable. In addition, a decision-making reasoning mechanism will be developed, in which the information represented in the ontology model will be transformed, aggregated, and optimized. As a result, two integrated decision-making reasoning method and optimization model will be developed, which will be validated as conform, acceptable, and generalizable. Besides, an automated decision-making support system will be designed integrating the ontology model, the reasoning method, and the optimization model through artificial intelligence technologies, which will be validated as consistent and expeditious. To conclude, this research project not only theoretically contributes to the body of knowledge of sustainability evaluation theory and complex and multi-attribute large group decision-making theory under uncertainty, but also practically serves as an operationalizable guide for the decision-making of sustainable developments of urban infrastructures in China.