基于CERES-MAIZE模型降水保险指数研究-以北京夏玉米为例

天气指数保险能有效解决传统农业保险的道德风险、逆选择、勘察定损及理赔成本高等问题，转移和分散农业天气灾害风险。指数确定是天气指数保险产品设计的难点和核心。本研究以北京夏玉米为例，综合国内外降水保险指数设计的优点，在区分不同生育期的同时，考虑了各生育期内降水重要性，分生育期设计以降水权重为基础的加权降水指数。克服前人运用统计模型设计降水指数的不足，采用CERES-MAIZE作物机理模型，在模拟降水对玉米产量影响的基础上，确定降水权重。分析以不同降水单元构建的加权降水指数和玉米降水减产率的相关性，筛选各生育期最有效的加权降水指数。结合北京玉米保险的实际，调整加权降水指数，作为玉米降水保险指数，为农业天气指数保险的在我国的研究和应用提供技术支撑。

The weather index insurance can resolve the issues of moral risk, adverse selection, high costs of survey and assessments of traditional agricultural insurance, transfer and disperse the weather risk of agriculture effectually. Index making is the key in the weather index insurance product designing process. This subject will take Benjing's summer maize as an example, integrate the advantages of precipitation insurance index in and abroad, design the index with considering the importance of the precipitation while differentiating the growth stage. The CERES-MAIZE model will be adopted instead of statistics model to confirm the precipitation weight coefficient by simulating the effect of precipitation on the yield. The best correlated weight precipitation index of different growth stage with yield reduction rate of maize will be picked, and fixed to be the precipitation insurance index referring the water requirement of maize and the situation of agriculture insurance in Beijing. This research will provide the technical support for the study and application of weather index insurance in China.