非常规突发事件应急项目资源配置网络演化机理分析与韧性控制

日益频发的非常规突发事件已经对人类生存和经济社会发展造成了严重威胁。如何在事件发生时迅速构建具有韧性的应急资源配置网络是应急项目管理必须解决的关键问题。针对非常规突发事件前兆模糊、要素关联、演化迅速的特点，本研究将基于非常规突发事件资源需求情景演化特征，综合考虑应急资源需求网络、物资配送网络、工程设施网络以及应急救援多主体组织网络及其相互关系，构建非常规突发事件应急项目紧急救灾资源配置系统复杂网络模型并揭示其演化机理。结合非常规突发事件应急项目资源需求不确定性以及资源配置网络潜在脆弱性问题，构建应急项目资源配置网络效能测评模型，提出非常规突发事件应急项目资源配置网络韧性控制方法。研究成果旨在为丰富应急项目管理理论和知识体系以及提升非常规突发事件应急项目管理能力提供参考和借鉴。

Frequent unconventional emergencies have seriously threatened human survival and economic and social development. Constructing a resilient emergency resource allocation network is a key issue in emergency project management. Unconventional emergencies have the characteristics of fuzzy precursors, correlation of elements, and rapid evolution. According to the evolutionary characteristics of unconventional emergency resource demand, this research aims to build an emergency resource allocation network along with its evolution mechanism for unconventional emergency projects. This network integrates emergency resource demand networks, logistic networks, engineering facility networks and multi-agent organization networks. Subsquently, an efficiency and effectiveness evaluation model and resilience control methods for the emergency resource allocation network are proposed in consideration of demand uncertainty and potential allocation network vulnerability of emergency resources. This research hopes to enrich the emergency project management theory and its knowledge system, and to provide references to practical work of unconventional emergency management.