从微观和企业视角对会计盈余信息含量的研究经久不衰，而最新学术前沿涉及整体层面会计盈余信息含量问题，研究微观对宏观的影响。会计盈余与股票市场回报负相关，与公司债券的整体市场收益相关，与GDP增长正相关。微观对宏观的影响，会计盈余所包涵的宏观经济因素，成为有待突破的问题，也是学术前沿问题。为此，本课题，基于政府主导型经济体和货币供给管制背景，研究会计盈余对GDP的影响；会计盈余的货币效应，即对货币领域的影响；会计盈余的通胀效应，即对通胀的预测作用；会计盈余的实体经济效应，即对资本形成率和就业增长率的影响。本课题在学术上拓展了宏观层面会计盈余信息含量的研究，解释了会计盈余与市场回报关系，发现了会计盈余的宏观经济因素内涵，进一步厘清会计盈余对宏观经济的影响机理和路径。在实践上，提出会计盈余对宏观经济的增量预测价值，有助于理解货币走向、通胀趋势、实体经济景气、宏观经济增长等，兼顾市场价值和政策意义。

A growing literature attempts to understand the role of accounting information in the macroeconomy. Much of the evidence suggests that accounting earnings at the aggregate level contains macroeconomic information (e.g., Kothari et al., 2013; Konchitchki and Patatoukas, 2014). Yet we know little about whether this information can be useful to investors or policy makers..The purpose of this paper is to fill this void by examining whether aggregate earnings can be used as a predictor of macroeconomy, such as GDP, M2/GDP, CHIBOR, CPI, PPI, employment rate. Our findings reveal that the predictive content of aggregate accounting earnings growth for future GDP growth is economically important and incremental to that of contemporaneous GDP growth. We find that aggregate earnings growth is significantly positively associated with future changes in M2/GDP, CHIBOR, CPI, PPI, and employment rate. .Our study contributes to accounting and economics research by documenting that aggregate accounting earnings growth is a significant leading indicator of GDP growth and macroeconomy. We extend research on the informativeness of accounting earnings data for economic activity both at the firm level and at the aggregate level. We also extend research on the stock market valuation of aggregate accounting earnings growth. Our evidence that aggregate accounting earnings growth is incrementally useful for forecasting GDP growth extends prior research by moving in the opposite direction, i.e., by examining the “micro to macro” link..