前人已提出中太平洋（Central Pacific，CP）厄尔尼诺（El Niño）被分成两类，即CP-I El Niño和CP-II El Niño，主要是因为这两类CP El Niño的海表温度异常分布和气候影响不同。本项目拟通过分析观测数据，研究触发两类CP El Niño的海洋或大气影响因子，并深入研究海洋或大气影响因子导致两类CP El Niño产生的动力过程；结合数值模拟试验，验证观测数据所提出的澳大利亚冬季风激发CP-I El Niño产生的物理过程和机制。基于观测和数值模拟实验结果，通过认识澳大利亚冬季风在全球变暖背景下的变化，从而根据物理基础评估CP-I El Niño未来变化。这一研究能进一步完善El Niño的理论框架，同时为改进模式中El Niño模拟提供理论依据，进而提高对El Niño的预报能力。同时，也有助于理解两类CP El Niño在气候变暖背景下的变化。

Previous studies indicated the central Pacific (CP) El Niño should be divided into two types: CP-I El Niño and CP-II El Niño, based on their different patterns of warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and climate impacts. By analyzing observational data, this proposed research attempts to investigate the oceanic or atmospheric factors which excite the two types of CP El Niño, and explore how the oceanic or atmospheric factors impact the two types of CP El Niño; Next, we will try to verify the physical processes and dynamical mechanisms that the Australian winter monsoon impacts the CP-I El Niño by using numerical model. Based on the results of observations and experiments, we can analyze the variations of CP El Niño under global warming by evaluating the changes of Australian winter monsoon in CMIP5/CMIP6. These results are helpful to understand the theoretical frame of El Niño, providing basis of how to improve the simulation of El Niño in models, and improve the prediction abilities of models. At the same time, it is beneficial to understand the changes of two types of CP El Niño under global warming.