变化环境下的高亚洲地区极端降雪事件研究

全球变暖加快了水系统的循环速率，改变了降水的总量、形态、频率和强度。相较于以往对极端降水事件或降雪平均态的关注，极端降雪事件的研究则相对滞缓。高亚洲地区有“亚洲的水塔”的美誉，对全球变化响应极为敏感，是研究极端降雪事件的理想实验地，具有鲜明的地域特色、代表性和典型性。本项目以高亚洲地区为靶区，拟构建一套能够表征高亚洲地区极端降雪事件强度、频率和历时特征的指标体系，揭示不同极端降雪指标在变化背景下的长期演变趋势和时空变化规律；基于合成分析方法，解析极端降雪事件形成和消亡过程中天气系统各要素的运动轨迹，查明影响高亚洲地区极端降雪事件变化的主导环流因子；并基于NEX-GDDP高分辨率数据集，预估高亚洲地区不同区域未来各极端降雪事件指标的变化趋势。为提高极端降雪事件预测的能力，规避极端降雪事件所带来的风险以及科学的水资源管理和调控提供理论支撑。

Global warming has accelerated the circulation rate of water systems, changing the total amount, pattern, frequency, and intensity of precipitation. Compared with the previous focus on extreme precipitation events or snowfall averaging, the study of extreme snowfall events has been relatively slow. The High Asia region is known as "Asia's water tower" and is extremely sensitive to global changes, making it an ideal experimental site for studying extreme snowfall events. This project takes the High Asia region as the target area, and intends to build a set of index system that can characterize the intensity, frequency and temporal characteristics of extreme snowfall events in the High Asia region, and reveal the long-term evolution trend and spatial and temporal changes of different extreme snowfall indicators in the changing background; based on the synthetic analysis method, analyze the trajectory of the elements of the weather system during the formation and extinction of extreme snowfall events, and identify the dominant circulation influencing the changes of extreme snowfall events in the High Asia region. Based on the NEX-GDDP high-resolution dataset, predicting the future trends of extreme snowfall events in different regions of the High Asia region. It provides theoretical support for improving the ability to predict extreme snowfall events, avoiding the risks caused by extreme snowfall events, and scientific water resources management and control.