南北半球能量不对称及其对降雨分布的影响

地球系统南北半球能量不对称分布，导致越赤道大气能量由北半球向南半球输送和海洋热能由南半球向北半球输送。近期观测和模拟结果都表明，越赤道大气能量变化影响降雨的半球不对称性和空间分布，特别是热带辐合带位置和强度。南北半球大气能量不对称的变化主要是由温室气体强迫和气溶胶强迫造成的，这方面的研究到目前为止还很少，它们对半球能量不对称的贡献和影响机制还不清楚，对越赤道能量输送中水汽携带能量所占比例的研究还是空白。越赤道水汽和能量与降雨分布关系密切，但缺乏系统研究。本项目拟利用新发布的 CMIP6 和 CMIP6 DAMIP 完全海气耦合模式模拟结果，结合观测资料进行归因研究，系统探讨两种强迫对南北半球能量不对称变化的贡献和影响机制，探讨越赤道水汽和能量传输的变化规律，以及与不同雨带位置和强度的定量关系。揭示这种关系的变化规律及对未来降雨分布的影响，为准确预报未来全球降雨时空变化，提供新的途径和方法。

The hemispheric energy asymmetric distribution in the Earth system leads to the cross-equatorial transport of the atmospheric energy from the northern hemisphere to the southern hemisphere and the oceanic heat transport from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere. Recent researches from both observations and model simulations have shown that the change in cross-equatorial transport of the atmospheric energy affects the hemispheric precipitation asymmetry and its spatial distribution, particularly the position and intensity of the inter-tropical convergence zone. The change of the hemispheric energy asymmetric distribution are caused by the forcings of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, but researches on this topic are still rare. The influence mechanism and the contribution of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings to the hemispheric energy asymmetry are still not clear, and the percentage of the energy carried by the water vapor in the cross-equatorial transport is still unknown and needs further study. The cross-equatorial water vapor transport and the precipitation have close relationship, but further systematic research is needed. In this study, the newly published CMIP6 and CMIP6 DAMIP datasets from coupled simulations will be employed to carry out the detection and attribution study. Combined with observations, the influence mechanism and the contribution of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings to the hemispheric energy asymmetry will be investigated systematically, the change pattern of the cross-equatorial transport of the atmospheric water vapor and energy, and their quantitative relationship with the position and intensity of different rain belts will be studied, so as to reveal the variations of the relationship with the increase of greenhouse gases and decrease of aerosols in the next tens of years, providing a new way and method for the precise prediction of the spatiotemporal variations of the precipitation in the future.