多因素耦合的船舶通航与航道生态响应机理研究

内河航运的快速发展带动了社会经济的增长，也深刻影响着河流生态空间的改变。以长江中游受限水域为研究河段，从河道指数对船舶交通流特征影响研究入手，采用长短时记忆卷积神经网络等方法，建立不同蜿蜒度航道船舶交通流特征模型，获取船舶交通流特征拟合函数；以船舶通航的流场实测数据与船模试验数据为基础，结合非线性变维分形理论，构建船舶通航作用下的水流垂向分布模式，解决船舶运动驱动的分形维数计算难题，探明分形维数与船舶交通流、河道蜿蜒度、航道水力学参数之间的关系；建立多因素耦合的栖息地适宜度动态评价体系，揭示船舶通航作用下航道生态空间异质性响应机理与演化趋势，提出航运发展与航道生态互适的技术方案并开展实证研究。项目研究成果将为水路交通系统与水生态系统交叉融合提供新的研究思路，同时为内河航运规划、水路交通组织、水资源综合开发和利用提供理论支撑。

The rapid development of inland shipping promotes the growth of social economy and also significantly impacts the river ecological space. Aiming at the restricted waters in the middle reaches of the Yangtze river, the present study investigates the influence of river channel index (represented by meandering degree) on the vessel traffic flow characteristics. The application of bi-direction long and short time memory recurrent neural network in ship trajectory restoration is also explored, on basis of which fitting functions of vessel traffic flow could be obtained. In-situ investigation and ship model test would be conducted for flow measurements and ecological data collection. The vertical fractal distribution model of water flow is constructed by nonlinear fractal theory of variable dimension. Thus, the response law between fractal dimension and vessel traffic flow, river meandering degree and channel hydraulics parameters could be discussed. A multi-factor coupling dynamic evaluation system of habitat suitability would be established to reveal the response mechanism as well as evolution trend of ecological spatial heterogeneity of inland waterways with ship navigations. The research is expected to provide new insights of interdisciplinary integration for water-borne transportation system and river ecosystem. Meanwhile, the study could support future inland river shipping planning, water transportation organization, and comprehensive utilization of water resources.