基于随机过程的飞轮储能系统动态可靠性分析

随着飞轮储能系统（FWESS）能量密度和转速要求的日益提高，可靠性和安全性将成为FWESS开发过程中的核心问题。本项目以反映用电载荷时间及幅值及其自身结构的不确定性对FWESS失效率的影响为目标，提出基于随机过程的FWESS动态可靠性评估方法。采用泊松过程和最大熵原理描述用电载荷时间和幅值的二维不确定度；建立FWESS损耗分析与热传导分析平台，得到飞轮储能系统的电磁场温度场力场耦合模型，分析关键部件的热弹耦合疲劳可靠性，根据Palmgren-Miner 线性累积损伤法则和部件的P-S-N 曲线，估算关键部件的疲劳寿命；开展绝缘结构的漏电失效、热疲劳和机械疲劳失效机理分析，得到绝缘结构的可靠性评估模型。最后，建立基于有效寿命的FWESS关键部件寿命动态均衡数学模型，使得FWESS各关键部件的有效工作寿命趋于均衡。

With the increase of energy density and rotating speed of flywheel energy storage system (FWESS), reliability and safety has become the key problem of FWESS development. By taking reflecting the uncertainty of the acting time and amplitude of loads and the uncertainty of FWESS structure parameters on the failure rate of FWESS as its main goal, a method to evaluate the dynamic reliability of FWESS based on stochastic process is proposed. Poisson process and maximum entropy are adopted to describe the two dimensional uncertainty of loads on acting time and amplitude. The loss analysis and thermal analysis platform is established to obtain the stress, thermal, electromagnetic coupled fields on key components, and then their thermo-elastic fatigue reliability model is set up, based on which, the predictive lifetime of key components is estimated based on Palmgren-Miner linear accumulative damage rule and P-S-N curve. The failure mechanism, including electricity leakage failure, thermal fatigue, and mechanical fatigue of isolation systems is analyzed to establish its reliability evaluation model. Finally, the dynamic balance model of the lifetime of key components was set up based on effective lifetime analysis, which to balance the effective lifetime of key components.