基于信息竞赛的政府应急管理主体行为基模分析及机制优化设计

新媒体环境下，基于官方媒体和自媒体在应急管理过程中的信息竞赛模式，研究应急管理主体行为影响机制、问题基模及反馈机理，对维护社会安全稳定、调整和优化政府应急管理机制有着重要的理论与现实意义。本研究在查阅国内外文献资料、收集政务新媒体相关基础数据的基础上，遵循信息竞赛模式下政府应急管理“主体行为影响因素”→“主体行为演变及反馈机理”→“可否调控及优化”→“如何优化并完善应急管理机制”的逻辑展开研究。首先，基于公共危机理论、社会冲突理论等，结合典型案例解析信息竞赛模式的特征与影响；其次，采用Sznajd模型、SIR模型、多主体行为演化模型等，深入探讨应急管理主体行为系统的影响因素及作用机理；再次，基于系统动力学基模技术分析应急管理主体行为问题基模，解释其原因并给出杠杆解；最后，利用系统动力学反馈动态复杂性分析技术对应急管理主体行为进行仿真分析，有针对性地提出有政府应急管理机制优化路径和调整方案。

With the rapid development of new media, official media and we-media are playing important roles in government emergency management. However, government emergency management is also facing with unprecedented difficulties and challenges for the information competition between them. So it is of great theoretical and practical significance to adjust and optimize government emergency management mechanism and ensure social safety and stability that the analysis of influence mechanism, problem model and feedback principle of agents behaviors in emergency management. Based on reviewing the literature related and collecting data of governmental new media, we are trying to answer the following questions: What is information competition? How will it affect government emergency management? What about the behaviors between government and public? Can they be controlled? How to optimize the government emergency management mechanism? Therefore, we will analyze the characteristics and effects of information competition model firstly, based on public crisis theory, social conflict theory etc. and a few of typical cases. Secondly, we will discuss the factors and their interaction of emergency management system by Sznajd model, SIR model and the multi-agent behavior evolution model. Thirdly, we’d like to build the emergency management agents behaviors models, explain their reasons and find solutions by system dynamics basic model technology; Finally, we’d like to looking for the optimizing paths and adjustment schemes of emergency management mechanism by system simulation.