随着 “一带一路”重大倡议的实施，新丝绸之路经济带的环境变化备受关注。西伯利亚南部位于中亚干旱核心区，是重要的生态和气候过渡区，如何平衡环境保护与经济发展这一“矛盾”是亟待解决的问题。研究该区过去环境变化的特征及规律有助于认识和缓解上述矛盾，具有重要的战略和理论意义。本项目拟在研究区(70°E -90°E,40°N-50°N)表土孢粉数据空白和不均匀区系统采集400-500个样品，从统一孢粉科属分类、细化植物功能型和生物群区类型、检验非相似型距离的阈值与最佳类比数目三个方面对基于植物功能型的现代类比法(PFT-MAT)进行改进和检验，使之成为可靠的区域孢粉—植被—气候定量方法。再利用改进后的方法对区域内已有和新增的泥炭孢粉资料进行定量重建，计算出全新世不同时间段的植被类型和气候要素值，系统分析区域气候变化的时空特征及规律。该项目将为准确预测新丝绸之路未来环境变化趋势提供可靠的生态学证据。

With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, environmental changes in the new Silk Road Economic Belt and surrounding areas have attracted global attention. Southern Siberia (70°E -90°E,40°N-50°N) is located in the core area of Central Asia arid zone. It is not only an important ecological and climatic transition zone, but also an important hub connecting East Asia with Central Asia and West Asia. However, the fragile ecological environment and serious lack of water resources have become an important problem that restricting the economic development of the region. How to balance the contradiction between environmental protection and economic development in the future is an urgent problem for many scientists. Systematic understanding of the characteristics and rules of past environmental changes is an important way to resolve above contradictions. Therefore, it is of great national strategic and theoretical significance to study the past environmental changes in southern Siberia. This project intends to collect 400-500 surface samples in blank and weak areas of surface pollen data in the study area, and improve the existing Plant Functional Types - Modern Analogy method (PFT-MAT) from three aspects: unified classification of sporopollenaceae genera, refinement of plant functional types and biota types, threshold of testing distance between non-similar types and optimum number of analogies. The aim is to make it a reliable method which is suitable for the study area as well as can be applied in larger area. Then, the improved PFT-MAT method was used to quantitatively reconstruct the existing and new Holocene peat pollen data in the region, calculated the vegetation types and climatic factors value (Annual Average Precipitation-Pann, Annual average temperature-Tann, Coldest monthly temperature-Mtco, Warmest monthly temperature-Mtwa) at different periods, and systematically analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of regional climate change. This project will provide reliable ecological evidence for accurately predicting the future trend of environmental change along the New Silk Road and its surrounding areas.