生育率是反映妇女生育强度的重要指标，它是影响人口增长速度和人口年龄结构的核心因素。目前中国的低生育现状已经成为共识，虽然2015年国家施行了全面二孩政策，但是今后很长时期中国人口年龄结构仍将受到低生育率的影响。本课题拟拟引入国外前沿的理论与实证方法，遵循理论研究、实证研究、预测再到政策建议的逻辑主线，对生育率到经济增长的整个链条开展深入研究。本课题首先利用微观调查数据实证研究生育数量和生育间隔的影响因素以及隔代抚养对生育率的影响，然后利用宏观数据预测生育率；在此基础上研究低生育率通过消费数量和结构对经济增长率的短期影响，以及通过技术进步、劳动力数量、人力资本和资本存量对经济增长的长期影响。最后，通过政策模拟提出科学的人口政策。

Fertility rate is an important indicator of women's fertility intensity, which is the core factor affecting population growth rate and population age structure. At present, China's low fertility status has become a consensus. Although the government implemented a comprehensive two-child policy in 2015, the age structure of China's population will still be affected by low fertility for a long time in the future. This project intends to introduce the advanced theory and empirical methods from foreign countries, and following the line of theoretical research, empirical research, prediction and policy suggestions, carry out research on the whole chain of fertility rate to economic growth. Firstly, we use micro-survey data to empirically study the influencing factors of fertility quantity, fertility interval and the influence of skip-generation raising on the fertility rate. Then we use macro-data to predict the fertility rate. On this basis, we study the short-term impact of low birth rate on the economic growth rate through consumption quantity and structure, as well as the long-term impact on the economic growth through technological progress, labor quantity, human capital and capital stock. Finally, a scientific population policy is proposed through policy simulation.