基于时变水热耦合平衡和空间相关性的年径流响应机理与预测分析

旨在探讨区域气象条件、自然地理和社会经济等因素决定的时变水热耦合平衡和多区域空间相关性的年径流动态响应机理，及基于该响应机理的区域年径流预测与不确定性分析问题。以长江流域及其组成区域为背景，在分析年径流与气象、自然和社会等因素相互作用关系的基础上，探讨Budyko公式中综合参数的时变特征及辨识水热耦合平衡时变规律的多参数化方案，由此揭示区域水热耦合平衡的时变成因和年径流的动态响应机理；在对多区域空间相关性分析的基础上，用空间计量经济学探讨多区域年径流对空间相关性的响应机理；基于这两种机理，由分层贝叶斯模型定量解析年径流在时空两维层次的复合响应机理与模型不确定性，构建考虑气象、自然、社会等主控因子的年径流响应方程；结合全球气候模式探讨区域未来年径流预测方法及不确定性分析。该研究将揭示区域年径流响应的时空演变规律，阐明年径流响应多因素影响的内在机理，为理解区域年径流形成机理和预测提供理论依据。

The purpose of this project is to explore the time-varying coupled water-energy balance of annual runoff response and spatial correlation determined by regional meteorological conditions, physical geography and socio-economic factors, and then to analyze the prediction and uncertainty of annual runoff based on the response mechanism. Yangtze River Basin is selected as the study area and this study explores the time-varying characteristics of the integrative parameters in Budyko equations and multi-parameter scheme for identifying the time-varying law of coupled water-energy balance based on its relationship with meteorological, natural, and socio-economic factors, revealing the time-varying formation of coupled water-energy balance and the response mechanism of regional annual runoff. With the analysis of spatial correlation of multi-region, the response mechanism of regional annual runoff to spatial correlation of multi-region is clarified using spatial econometrics. Based on these two mechanisms, the compound response mechanism and model uncertainties of the annual runoff in spatial-temporal spaces will be quantitatively analyzed using the hierarchical Bayesian model. Then, a response equation of annual runoff is constructed considering the main control factors of meteorological, natural and social variables. At last, the future annual runoff and its uncertainty will be predicted using the global climate model. This study will reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of regional annual runoff response, clarify the internal mechanism of the multi-factor impact of annual runoff response, and provide a theoretical basis for understanding the formation and prediction of regional annual runoff.