本研究旨在完善预测微生物学理论在原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌定量风险评估应用体系，构建并优化肠毒素系列模型，开展分段式定量风险评估基础研究，为原料乳安全监管提供更为可靠的信息。以恒温、变温和综合环境条件下的原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌生长及其肠毒素产生情况为基础，归纳总结不同条件下肠毒素产生的差异性规律及与金黄色葡萄球菌浓度变化的内在关系，构建相应的预测模型，为原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的定量风险评估研究提供可靠的模型体系；应用肠毒素可能性模型对原料乳流通环节中金黄色葡萄球菌肠毒素产生情况进行即时监测，实施分段式定量风险评估，同时对金黄色葡萄球菌浓度和肠毒素产量进行预测，全面评估原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的潜在风险。此外，通过系统的敏感性分析，衡量影响原料乳中潜在风险的最关键因素，为政府及行业的风险交流与风险管理提供理论依据。

This study aims to improve the theoretical system of predictive microbiology in quantitative risk assessment of Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk. The enterotoxin models will be developed to conduct the segment-based microbiological risk assessment, providing reliable information to the security control of raw milk. In this project, the growth of S. aureus together with the production of enterotoxin will be observed at constant temperature, fluctuating temperature and comprehensive environmental conditions. The relationship between enterotoxin production and different conditions as well as the concentration of S. aureus will be also investigated. After establishment of the predictive models, the risk assessment on S. aureus in raw milk will be conducted and segment-based microbiological risk assessment will be considered according to the predictions from enterotoxin G/NG model. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis will be developed to fix the most relevant parameters, and it will provide useful information to the government and stakeholder.