大水矿井注浆堵水帷幕稳定性和预警方法的研究是采取合理防治措施的根本保证，而目前尚需要科学、深入、系统地研究采动与高水压下帷幕失稳诱发突水灾害孕育过程的内在动因和微破裂前兆特征，尤其是在基于微震参数建立定量描述帷幕失稳危险性的评价指标与预警模型方面还需要进一步研究。本项目基于"开采效应和水力梯度应力扰动诱发微震活动性是帷幕失稳诱发突水灾害前兆本质特征"这一学术思路，突破以帷幕区域水压、水量及水温等表观信息监测为依据进行突水灾害预测的传统思路，以帷幕区域煤岩变形破坏过程中的力学参数为基础，采用物理实验与数值模拟方法，揭示帷幕失稳诱发突水灾害孕育的内在动因和微破裂前兆规律；以实际的堵水帷幕为背景工程，借助于微震技术，探寻帷幕失稳过程中的微震活动性演化规律；结合数理统计方法，并基于微震参数特点建立帷幕失稳危险性预警的评价指标及预警模型，为建立可操作性的帷幕突水灾害监测预警方法的研究提供理论依据。

It is a basic guarantee for taking reasonable control measures to study the stability and early warning method of grouting curtain in the water-rich mine, up to now, the microfracture precursory characteristics during the preparation process of water inrush disaster induced by curtain instability still need to be researched scientifically, deeply and systematically, especially lacking of the evaluation index and early warning model for describing quantitatively the risk of curtain instability is established based on microseismic parameters. Based on this idea, the microseismicity induced by mining effect and hydraulic gradient disturbance stress is a precursor to the essential characteristics of water inrush disaster induced by curtain instability, the project break the traditional thinking to forecast the risk of water inrush disaster according to the apparent information about water pressure, water quantity and water temperature in curtain area, combined with the mechanical parameters during deformation and fracture of coal-rock in curtain area, the intrinsic motivation and microfracture precursors law nurtured by water inrush disaster induced by curtain instability is revealed by using of the physical experimental and numerical simulation method; then practical grouting curtains are employed as the background models. by means of microseismic monitoring technique, the microseismicity evolution law during the process of curtain instability is sought; and combining the mathematical statistics, the evaluation index and early warning model will be established for the risk of curtain instability, which can provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of operational disaster monitoring and early warning method for the water inrush disaster of curtain bodies based on the characteristics of microseismic parameters.