确权、信任与农地流转契约选择——基于随机性控制试验的农户行为研究

产权界定不完全及产权实施的主体异质性假设下，农地确权未必能够促进农地流转，且在传统社会关系网络中，流转契约普遍存在短期化、内部人流转等非市场化特征。本研究构建“产权强度——嵌入性交易——契约选择”的理论框架，将产权界定对交易的双重作用机制与社会学信任半径与信任结构理论，契约结构分析与契约属性选择理论相结合，研究中国农村传统社区转型中的个体信任与政府主导的确权改革，对农户农地流转行为以及流转契约选择的影响路径和效果。在实证方面，本研究结合农地确权政策实施进程，在广东省内通过已经开始的政府部门合作，实施前沿主流的随机控制试验（RCTs），使用Stata和MATLAB软件，进行t检验和LPM\CLM估计等。研究结果将为我国农业发展，尤其是农地管理政策提供科学依据和实施路径，也为发现农地流转从非正式交易转向正式交易的社区开放路径进行有益探索。

Under the assumptions of incomplete delimitation of property rights and agents' heterogeneity of property implementation, it can be proved that rural land titling may not be able to incentive land transaction, especially in the kinship context , farmland transaction in China has non-market characteristics, such as short-term contract, transaction between in-group members. This research constructs a unified theoretical framework of "Strength of Property Rights- Embeddedness Transaction- Contract Choice ", combines the duple effects of delimitation of property rights on transaction, and the advanced theory of trust radius and the radius-adjustment measuring methods of individuals' trust, research on the outcome of Farmland Titling Reform and the effect and influence path of rural households' contract choosing behavior..This research carries out Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs) through an undergoing project in cooperation with Guangdong government on the progress of rural land titling.Using Stata and MATLAB language, with t-test and Linear Probability Model, Conditinal Logit Model to explore the causal relationship between rural land titling policy, individual heterogeneous trust and land transaction contract choosing behavior.Meanwhile, to make a positive attempt to find the open path to the community to promote the transition from informal transaction to formal transaction.