生育水平的变动会引起人口、经济、环境等系统的变化，此为人口效应。在我国生育政策成为影响生育水平变动的最主要因素。对新疆这样的少数民族区域，生育政策实施晚、相对宽松，产生了不同于其他地区的生育水平变动轨迹，进而形成不同的人口效应。本项目以生育水平变动为切入点，首先模拟生育政策情景方案，以实际执行计划生育政策为基准方案，设计三种不同生育政策实施下的比较方案，动态模拟比较方案下的生育水平。其次，借助人口自然属性特征与空间统计方法构建人口自效应模型，以四要素函数联立与生态足迹、相对资源承载力法构建人口他效应模型，选取适应的人口预测软件。最后，在不同生育政策情景下启动人口效应模型，以人口效应反观政策评估为思路，一方面分析计划生育政策实施下的人口效应，评估政策执行情况和实施的利弊；另一方面，预测“全面二孩”实施的人口效应，判断后计划生育时代政策实施的效果，进而为完善少数民族地区人口政策提供建议。

The transition of the fertility level will cause the change of population, economy and environment system, and it is the population effect. In our country, the family planning has become the most important factor to the change of fertility. Xinjiang is an ethnic minority area, and the implementation of the family planning is late and loose. Making a contrast with other region, it can result different fertility level, and form the different population effects. This project is based on the change of fertility rate. Firstly, it simulates policy schemes， taking the really family planning as the base scheme and taking three other comparison schemes under the different fertility policy. Then, it simulates fertility level of the different policy. Secondly, it builds model of population effect with the characteristics of natural attribute, spatial statistical method, four elements function, ecological footprint and resources capacity method, and selects the suitable population forecast software. Lastly, it starts the model under different policy, and valuates policy from population effect. On the one hand, it will study population effect of base scheme and evaluate the family planning. On the other hand, it will forecast the population effect of replacement fertility and evaluate the new fertility policy. And then, it puts forward suggestions in order to improve the adjustment of family planning in the minority regions.