分类制度下城市生活垃圾处理系统环境、经济和社会影响评价及技术政策优化

随着城镇化与经济快速发展，我国城市生活垃圾产生量持续增长，垃圾围城形势严峻。生活垃圾分类既是破解上述问题的有效途径，也是垃圾处理处置路径、回收利用方式、行业部门关联的关键决定因素之一，从而进一步引发环境、经济和社会影响。本研究从梳理我国生活垃圾分类策略及影响因素出发，利用物质流分析模拟生活垃圾处理系统内部复杂组分垃圾流动特征，探索各环节相互作用和反馈关系；构建区域层面生活垃圾处理系统的环境投入产出分析与生命周期评价集成模型，量化不同分类策略及处理技术路径下生命周期环境、经济和社会影响并揭示产生机制；以综合效应为目标，结合生态效率及数据包络开展多维技术政策情景下优化分析；选择典型城市，通过构建模型开展案例研究。研究成果将切实推进垃圾分类实践，为我国垃圾分类制度完善及城市生活垃圾可持续管理提供科学方法和量化依据。

With the rapid development of urbanization and economy, the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation has continuous increased in China, which caused waste siege situation. MSW classification, considered as an effective way to solve the above problems, is a key factor to MSW treatment, recycle, reuse, disposal, and industry sector linkage, which further induces environmental, economic and social impacts. Starting from MSW classification strategies and influencing factors, this study will simulate the complex MSW fraction flows within the MSW treatment system by material flow analysis, in order to explore the interaction and feedback among various processes. A hybrid model by integrating environmental input-output analysis and life cycle assessment will be constructed at the reginal level. Under the different classification strategies and treatment paths, the hybrid model can quantify the life cycle environment, economic and social impact of MSW treatment system and reveal the mechanisms. Eco-efficiency and data envelop analysis will be used to optimize the comprehensive effects in multi-dimensional technology-policy scenarios. Case studies for typical cities will be conducted by the proposed model. The research results will effectively promote the practice of MSW classification, as well as provide scientific methods and quantitative basis for the improvement of MSW classification system and sustainable MSW management in China.