大型浅水湖泊水动力水质模型风拖曳系数适配性分析及失适传递机制研究

水环境数学模型是辅助水污染治理和生态修复的常用工具，集成化、耦合化的精细过程模拟涉及众多参数，一些参数估计有可能超出原有适用条件影响模型准确性、误导管理者决策。申请者发现在大型浅水湖泊模拟中，广泛使用的由海域观测实验推导的风拖曳系数公式并不适用于内陆湖泊，流速模拟值存在低估现象。基于此，本申请项目以影响大型浅水湖泊湖流特性的重要参数风拖曳系数为例，选取水源地于桥水库为研究对象，采用理论推导、室内港池和原位试验、数值模拟相结合的方法，探寻新的适合内陆湖泊的波参数风拖曳系数公式，通过海量模拟原创性提出水动力水质模型适配性分析的一般方法，从传递途径和效果上解析风拖曳系数在水动力和水质模式间失适传递机制。通过独辟蹊径的“模型适配性”拓展模型性能分析方法，评估参数估计的适用程度，扩展水环境数学模型研究领域前沿，落地指导具体工程实践应用。

It is an important tool to utilize the water quality models for the water environment protection and ecological restoration. There are extensive parameters in the process-based water quality model, especially more and more ensemble and coupling model applications. Oftentimes model provides the wrong answer or, even worse, gives the “right” answer for the wrong reasons due to over the range of parameterization conditions, erroneous conclusions will be reached when using model outputs to inform the policy decision making process. In large shallow lakes, it may be necessary to modify the empirical wind-drag coefficient formula derived from ocean surface experiments because lake current velocities may be seriously underestimated in inland waters. To resolve this issue, based on the Yuqiao Reservoir, we will theoretically and experimentally derive wave development state to the wind velocity-dependent wind-drag coefficient in a water quality model. An innovative adaption analysis method of parameter estimation will be proposed, using Latin Hypercube Sampling and Total Rank Score statistical approach. We will also reveal the effect of transit coefficient (e.g., eddy viscosity coefficient) on adaption of parameter estimation between hydrodynamic module and water quality module. The project highlights the MODEL ADAPTION to assess the adequacy of parameter estimation and extend the analysis methods of model performance. From a water quality management standpoint in large shallow lakes, the study will provide more accuracy of model projection for modeling application and expand the research frontier of water quality model.