基于多元大数据融合的人群聚集形成机理与预警管控方法研究

随着我国经济的发展和城市化进程的推进，城市人口快速增长，大型人群聚集活动时常发生。尽管大型活动一般会带来经济效益、满足居民文娱需求，但也会造成区域交通压力突增、交通混乱等负面影响，严重时还可能引发踩踏事故。建立高效的城市人群聚集预警、预测和管理系统已成为我国社会发展中亟需解决的问题。本项目拟融合手机信令数据和多元交通数据，获取城市居民动态出行信息，估计人群聚集密度，建立人群聚集的预警和预测模型，研究应对大型聚集活动的多方式协同交通限行管理方法，旨在提高大型活动中的交通组织水平，降低高密度人群集聚风险，提高城市的应急管理能力。

With the development of economy and the progress of urbanization in our country, the urban population is growing rapidly and large-scale crowd gathering events often occur. Although massive events generally bring economic benefits or satisfy residents' culture and recreational needs, the negative impact of such events is the sudden increase of traffic pressure in the relevant areas, causing traffic chaos and even serious stampede. Building an efficient early warning, prediction and management system for urban large crowd gatherings has become an urgent problem to be solved in the social development of our country. This project intends to integrate mobile signaling data and multi-source transportation data to obtain dynamical urban travel demand information, estimate dynamical population density, study the methods of crowd early warning and prediction, and establish a multi-mode collaborative traffic restriction method to deal with large-scale crowd gathering events. This project aims to improve the transportation organization in massive events, reduce the risk of high-density crowd gatherings, and improve cities' ability to deal with emergencies.