准确计算永久消耗的地下水资源储量是水文地质领域的热点、难点和前沿问题。尽管永久消耗的地下水资源储量很大程度上来源于弱透水层，但是针对其永久释水量演变机制的研究鲜有涉及。为此，本项目将从室内实验出发分析弱透水层的弹塑性释水机制；运用非线性递归反演算法，识别渗透系数和塑性贮水率这两个关键参数的动态变化过程；在此基础上，改进已有的经验关系式，建立关键参数动态变化的均质-非均质弱透水层弹塑性释水模型；通过数值模拟分析，揭示不同的水动力作用类型、非均质特征和关键参数动态变化方式影响下弱透水层永久释水量的演变规律；最终，将改进的弹塑性释水模型应用于苏锡常含水层系统，模拟预测原位弱透水层永久释水量的历时演变过程。本项目拓展了针对地下水资源储量永久消耗问题的研究思路与方法，研究成果将为我国地下水资源的科学开发和高效利用提供决策参考。

Accurate calculation of permanent depletion of groundwater resources storage is a hot, difficult and frontier problem in the research area of hydrogeology. Although aquitards contribute to the permanent groundwater depletion to a great extent, the evolution rules of permanent aquitard depletion are rarely involved. Therefore, this project will start from laboratory experiments to analyse the elastic-plastic mechanisms of aquitard depletion. The dynamic changes in the key parameters, namely hydraulic conductivity and plastic specific storage, of the elastic-plastic aquitard depletion model will be recognized by the recursive inversion algorithm. On this basis, the model will be reconstructed with incorporating improved empirical rules of the dynamics in the two key parameters. Then numerical modeling analysis will be conducted to reveal the evolution rules of permanent aquitard depletion under the influences of different hydrodynamic functions, spatial heterogeneities and ways of dynamic changes in the two key model parameters. Finally, the newly constructed model will be applied to the Su-Xi-Chang aquifer system to simulate and predict the evolutionary process of permanent groundwater depletion from in-situ aquitard units. This project extends the research strategies and methods regarding the issue of permanent depletion of groundwater resources storage. The research achievements will provide decision-making reference for the scientific exploitation and efficient utilization of groundwater resources.