我国生物质能GHG减排潜力与减排成本分析

本研究拟针对如何科学的衡量我国生物质能GHG减排成本和减排潜力，以及如何按照成本-效益的原则选择最优的生物质资源能源化利用路径两个问题，开展微观和宏观两个层次的减排潜力与减排成本分析。首先，在对比分析国内外生物质能GHG排放核算方法及主要结论的基础上，根据我国特定能源结构，综合考虑共生产品分摊方法、土地利用变化相关GHG排放和生物质资源空间密度等因素，构建基于同一计算平台的我国生物质能不同技术路线的全生命周期GHG排放分析和成本分析模型，调研分析各类生物质能技术路线相关数据，系统全面地给出全生命周期GHG排放数据清单。在此基础上，应用MESSAGE能源系统动态优化模型，构建生物质能的能流网络图，定量研究我国生物质能宏观减排潜力与减排成本，并采用情景分析方法，模拟不同GHG减排政策下我国生物质能发展的可能优化路径。

GHG Mitigation potential analysis and mitigation cost analysis both at macro-level and micro-level will be carried out to construct scientific-based GHG balance methododoly and engage on the quantitative cost-effective analysis on the utilization of biomass in energy system. Firstly, based on some key issues including energy supply portfolio in China, co-product allocation method, bioenergy related Land Use Change emission and biomass spaptial density, a unified computing platform on Life Cycle GHG & Cost analysis will be established to provide energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions data inventory in China.Then,the dynamic optimization model, MESSAGE, will be applied to macro-level mitigation potential analysis. Bioenergy flow network will be drafted, and various scenarios will be designed to quantify the potential impact of various climate policies on bioenergy development.