培育和发展新能源汽车产业是我国降低交通能耗，减少环境污染，加快汽车产业的转型升级的重要战略举措。近年来，在一系列扶持政策的推动下，我国新能源汽车产业规模不断发展壮大，与之配套的市场推广方式也正由政府驱动向政府与市场双轮驱动过渡。在此背景下，如何分析和预测我国新能源汽车由补贴干预向市场化方向转变的扩散规律是迫切需要解决的科学问题。本项目拟结合我国新能源汽车市场扩散的主要特征，研究含有政策影响的序列生成方法，建立并求解具有动态市场容量、时滞效应和交互效应的灰色Bass模型，在此基础上，对我国新能源汽车市场扩散进行实证研究。项目综合运用灰色系统理论、新产品扩散模型、粒子群优化算法、统计模拟等跨学科理论和方法，解决序列生成参数矩阵求解、模型滞后期识别、参数可靠性检验等关键科学问题，以期在理论上进一步完善灰色预测和新产品扩散理论，在实践中为促进我国新能源汽车市场健康发展的政策制定提供参考。

Cultivating and developing new energy automobile industry is the significant strategic measures for our nation to decrease energy consumption of traffic, reduce environmental pollution and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of automobile industry. Over recent years, the scale of China's new energy automobile industry has been developing and growing owing to great promotion of a series of supporting policies, with the matching market promotion methods transiting from driven by the government to combination of the government and market. Based on this background, how to analyze and forecast the diffusion rules of transformation from subsidy intervention to market orientation for our nation’s new energy automobiles is a scientific problem to tackle urgently. Combining main characteristics of the market diffusion of new energy vehicles in China, our project is prepared to study sequence generation method containing policy influence, and establish and compute grey Bass models including dynamic market capacity, time-delayed effects and interaction effects. On the basis of the above studies, we use empirical method to study market diffusion of our nation’s new energy automobile. The project synthetically applies cross-disciplinary theories and methods including grey system theory, new product diffusion model, Particle Swarm Optimization and statistical simulation, and figure out the critical scientific problems including the solution of sequence generation parameter matrix, identification of stagnation model and test of parameter reliability. The aim of the project is to further perfect grey prediction theory and new product diffusion theory, and provide a reference for policy making to facilitate the healthy development of our nation’s new energy automobile market.