中国多亚型禽流感传播网络与人感染风险研究

我国是近年人感染新亚型禽流感病毒的高发地区，由于野鸟迁徙、家禽运输、以及候鸟与家禽的交互接触都会感染传播病毒，造成禽流感的空间扩散与人感染事件错综复杂，疫情预测预警成为难题。结合前期研究，我们提出：不同亚型禽流感病毒在中国通过固定传播网络进行空间扩散，并导致人类感染。为验证这一假设，我们以感染人数较多的H5N1、H7N9、H5N6三种禽流感为例，使用流行病学报告与病毒遗传学数据，结合前期积累的全国候鸟迁徙卫星追踪数据与家禽运输网络，构建候鸟非连续式、家禽连续式交互传播模式，通过模拟病毒基因流，还原禽流感时空扩散过程。研究内容包括：（1）H5N1、H7N9、H5N6等亚型禽流感空间传播规律的共性与差异；（2）禽流感候鸟、家禽多宿主传播扩散模型；（3）人感染禽流感风险预警的关键指标。研究将为认识禽流感扩散规律，高效开展人感染禽流感及其他动物源性传染病的传播控制工作提供重要依据。

China is a high-risk area for human infection with the new subtype of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in recent years. AIVs have been shown to be transmitted by bird migration, poultry transportation, and bird-poultry interface, which results a complex transmission pattern. On the basis of our previous studies, we propose that multi-subtype AIVs circulate across fixed networks and cause human infections. To verify this scientific hypothesis, we use epidemiological and viral genetic data of H5N1, H7N9, and H5N6 AIV, together with satellite tracking of national bird migration and poultry transportation, to create continuous and discontinuous transmission process, and reconstruct spatiotemporal diffusion process by simulating viral gene flow in China. The project is therefore divided into 3 main parts: (1) Transmission patterns of H5N1, H7N9, and H5N6 AIV. (2) Multi-host avian influenza transmission model at bird-poultry interface. (3) Risk factors for early warning of human infection with AIVs. Our study will reveal AIVs transmission and geo-spread patterns, and provide the theory basis for effectively preventing the spread of other zoonotic diseases in humans.