利用NCEP CFSv2后报资料研究欧亚大陆春季积雪异常对中国夏季降水预报的影响

春季欧亚大陆积雪对中国夏季降水有重要的影响，而且近三十年来这种影响变得比以往更为显著。然而，由于在气候预报模式中欧亚大陆春季积雪异常对中国夏季降水影响研究的缺乏，使得利用气候预报模式中春季积雪异常信号来对中国夏季降水进行业务预测缺少依据。鉴于此，本项目拟利用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)最新的气候预报系统(CFSv2)1983-2010年的后报资料、NCEP/CFSR资料和中国台站降水资料，研究欧亚大陆春季积雪异常在CFSv2中对中国夏季降水预报的影响及相应的物理过程，评估CFSv2中春季积雪对中国夏季降水预报影响的可预报性。通过本项目的研究，将进一步深入认识欧亚大陆春季积雪对中国夏季降水的影响，并为我国短期气候预测业务中利用欧亚大陆春季积雪对我国汛期降水进行预测提供模式依据。

Influence of Eurasian spring snow on summer rainfall over China is robust and become more significant in the recent three decades. However, due to the absence in the study about the impact of Eurasian spring snow anomalies on the prediciton of summer rainfall over China in climate forecast models, it is not convincing to do operatinal prediction of Chinese summer rainfall using Eurasian spring snow in climate forecast models. Therefore, this project is conducted to study the influence of Eurasian spring snow anomalies on the forecas of summer rainfall over China and the related physical process in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) using CFSv2 hindcast dataset for 1983-2010 and evaluate its prediction via comparing with the observations. The conduction of this project shed light on understanding the impact of Eurasian spring snow on summer rainfall and provides the evidences for the operational prediction of summer rainfall over China using Eurasian spring snow.