技术会聚网络结构探测与新兴趋势识别的理论方法及应用研究

探索技术会聚网络结构与新兴趋势识别的理论与方法，有助于我们把握技术会聚发展的国际趋势，为新兴前沿交叉领域部署提供决策参考。目前国内外对该课题的研究尚比较缺乏。本项目基于全球专利分析，结合信息可视化技术，利用世界权威专利数据库《德温特创新索引》海量专利数据，从技术领域网络、技术主题网络、技术领域/主题混合网络等多个视角，采用Girvan-Newman、最小生成树、Pathfinder等不同算法，进行技术会聚网络结构探测、演化机理分析与新兴趋势识别的理论与方法创新（改进）研究，并以将引发未来技术革命的"纳米-生物-信息技术"（NBI）的会聚发展为例进行实证研究。在定量分析基础之上，结合专家访谈，对研究结果进行检验与修正。本项目的研究成果，将为技术会聚网络结构分析与新兴趋势识别研究提供新的思路、理论依据和方法，拓展科学计量学理论、方法与应用，对我国抢占全球技术会聚发展的战略制高点提供决策支撑。

Exploring the theory and methodologies of technology convergence network structure and emerging trend identification, is of great significant for us to grasp the frontiers of technology convergence developing and provide evidence for S&T developing plan. However, there is no much studies on this issue. Based on patent analysis and information visualization, and adopting mass patent data from the world-authority patent database "Derwent Innovations Index", from the multiple perspectives of technology-field network structure, technology-topic network structure and technology field/topic hybrid network structure, using varieties of algorithms including Girvan-Newman, minimum spanning tree and Pathfinder algorithms, we will detect the inter cause, external cause，as well as the rule of network structure evolution, derivation, development of technology convergence, identify the emerging trend including the emerging field, emerging theme and emerging sub-network of technology convergence. Furthermore, we will do case studies using convergence development of NBI. Based on the quantitative analysis, we will verify and revise the research result combining with expert interviews. The research result of this project will enrich and develop the theory and method of technology convergence research, moreover, will expand the theory, method and application of scientometrics, which will provide decision support for our country to occupy the strategic dominant positionin the global technology convergence development.