交通网络行程时间不确定性是影响公共设施空间布局评价和优化的关键要素，忽略其影响将高估设施的服务水平和覆盖范围，特别是在火灾等紧急情况下可能导致救援人员无法准时到达救援地点，造成生命财产的重大损失。本项目以海量轨迹数据处理和挖掘为切入点，研究行程时间均值和方差信息的联合估计方法，实现行程时间不确定性的定量分析；在此基础上，提出顾及行程时间可靠度的可达性分析方法，评价公共设施空间布局的合理性；最后，发展基于可达性指标的公共设施空间布局优化模型及元启发式算法，求解公共设施的最优空间布局。本项目突破传统公共设施空间布局评价及优化方法忽略行程时间可靠度的局限，实现行程时间不确定环境下公共设施空间布局的评价及优化分析，为我国城镇可持续发展的科学决策提供坚实的理论和技术支持。

Travel time uncertainty is one of key elements affecting the public facility location evaluation and optimization performance. Ignoring its impacts would significantly overestimate the service levels and cover areas of public facilities, and at extreme cases may lead to the late arrival of rescues and thus result in a serious loss of life and wealth. This project investigates the methods for estimating travel time mean and variance using large-scale trajectory data so as to quantify travel time uncertainties in congested road networks. Then, place-based accessibility analysis method considering travel time reliability is proposed to evaluate locations of public facilities. Finally, accessibility-based public facility location optimization models and associated metaheuristic algorithms are developed to optimize the locations of public facilities. This project overcomes the shortcoming of ignoring travel time reliability in traditional facility location evaluation and optimization studies. It therefore can help make contributions to the development of a sustainable and harmonious society in Chinese rapid urbanization process.