配额嵌入模式下CTP螺旋驱动的产业系统低碳演化及政策引导

在实施以配额为基础的碳排放权交易制度之后，产业系统面临着能源依赖与减排目标双重约束，明晰其低碳演化的内在机理，并进行有效的政策引导，是迫切需要解决的问题。本项目从实现系统熵减的路径（物质交换和外力做功）两个方面出发，解析出碳资源流动、技术进步和政策优化（简称CTP）三个低碳演化的基本要素，分别从由技术进步偏向特征引致碳资源流动，进而倒逼政策优化，从而重新推动技术进步偏向性的产业系统低碳化的横向关联，以及用熵减来表征的产业系统纵向进化两个方面，构建CTP螺旋驱动低碳演化的理论模型。同时，运用面板模型、DID工具以及TH算法，实证分析CTP驱动产业系统熵减的路径及螺旋驱动效应，进而对其进行针对性的政策引导。本项目的研究不仅能理清产业系统低碳化熵变过程，对正确把握低碳演化的内在机理具有重要的理论指导意义，而且能科学测度CTP螺旋驱动效应，对制定政策并提高其科学性和可操作性具有明显的实际应用价值。

After the implementation of the quota based carbon exhaust emissions trading system, industrial system facing double constraints depends on the energy and emission reduction targets, it is an urgent need to solve the problem that teasing out the low carbon evolution mechanism, making policy guidance effectively. Firstly, This project discuss the two path(material exchange and external force acting) of the entropy reduction of the system, parse out the flow of carbon resources, technology progress and policy optimization (short for CTP) are three essential elements for the low carbon evolution of system. Carbon resource flow caused by technological progress biased characteristics, then the policy optimization be forced, so as to promote the technical progress bias of industrial system again, is the way that industrial system of low carbonization transverse Association, and with entropy reduction to two aspects of characterization of the industrial system with vertical evolution, then CTP helix driven of low carbon evolution theory model is constructed. At the same time, using the panel model, DID tools and TH algorithm, the empirical analysis of the path of the CTP driven industrial system entropy reduction and helix drive effect, and then to carry out targeted policy guidance. This research is not only to clarify the industrial system of low carbon change of entropy, having important theoretical significance to correctly grasp the mechanism of the low carbon evolution, but also measuring CTP helix driven evolution of low carbon effect scientifically, which has significant application value to formulate policies and improve it’s the scientific and operation.