入境免签和离境退税是我国构建旅游开放新格局和促进旅游服务贸易创新发展的重大公共政策，肩负破解我国旅游服务贸易国际收支逆差扩大化的重任。然而，学术上对上述入境旅游政策的演变规律和异质性效应的生成机制尚缺乏清晰的认识。本项目首先梳理入境免签和离境退税的政策路径和发展特征，进而分析政策演变规律的形成机理；然后采用基于反事实框架的政策效应评估方法，测度入境免签和离境退税对入境旅游流的影响，再从协同效应、调节效应和中介效应等方面深入剖析我国入境免签和离境退税政策效应的异质性及其决定因素和作用机制；最终形成提振入境旅游视角下相关政策的优化策略。本项目旨在拓展入境旅游政策研究的内容广度和理论深度，研究成果丰富了旅游需求理论内涵，深化了对入境旅游政策行为逻辑和异质性效应作用机制的认识，并为优化入境旅游政策体系提供了理论依据和决策参考。

Visa exemption and tax refund are important public policies to construct a new pattern of tourism opening up and to promote innovative development of tourism service trade in China. They shoulder the important task of avoiding the expansion of balance of payments deficit in China's trade in tourism services. However, there is still a lack of clear understanding of the evolution of the above-mentioned inbound tourism policies and the formation mechanism of heterogeneity effects. The study first straightens out the policy path and development characteristics of visa exemption and tax refund, and then analyses the formation mechanism of policy evolutionary laws. Further, the author adopts policy evaluation method based on counterfactual framework to measure the economic effect of inbound tourism on visa exemption and tax refund. Moreover, the study delves into the heterogeneity of the policy effects of visa exemption and tax refund in China as well as its influencing factors and mechanism from the aspects of synergy effect, adjustment effect and intermediary effect. Ultimately, this study forms the optimization strategy of relevant policies from the perspective of boosting inbound tourism. The project aims to expand the breadth and depth of inbound tourism policy research, and the results of which may enrich the connotation of tourism demand theory, deepen the understanding of the logic of inbound tourism policy behavior and the mechanism of heterogeneous effects, and provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for optimizing the inbound tourism policy system.